Archive for the 'Nigeria' Category

Africa’s top telco towers firm seeks $7bn US listing

A telecoms firm launched in Lagos is set to be Africa’s biggest listing in the United States with a suggested $7bn valuation. IHS Holding Ltd, which operates up to 28,000 wireless telcoms towers across nine countries, announced plans to go ahead with a potential initial public offering (IPO) of shares to investors in a press release on 14 August. It said the listing would start after a review by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), but gave no more details.

It is Africa’s largest mobile infrastructure provider and third largest independent multinational tower company in the world. It could be seeking to raise up to $1bn in New York.

In February, before the COVID-19 crisis hit markets, news agency Bloomberg gave the estimated valuation for IHS, which is based in Mauritius, and reported it had hired Citigroup Inc and JP Morgan Chase & Co as global coordinators for a listing. The preference was for New York as other world-leading telco tower firms are also listed in the US and have higher valuations compared to those in London. In 2018 the firm had delayed plans for a listing until after Nigeria’s Presidential election as Nigeria is still its main market.

Group CEO is US entrepreneur Sam Darwish, originally from Lebanon, was working in Nigeria with the first mobile (GSM) operator there. He founded IHS in 2001, with IHS Chief Operating Officer William Saad when the Government announced plans to privatize telecoms. The group builds or buys towers and leases space to mobile network operators (MNOs) who in turn provide wireless voice or data to customers, and it manages sites for MNOs. It is active in Nigeria, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, Zambia and Rwanda with some 24,000 towers.

Earlier in 2020, IHS finalized the acquisition of some 1,600 telecom towers in Kuwait from Zain and of Brazil’s Cell Site Solutions (Cessão De Infraestruturas S.A., CSS) which has some 2,300 towers and telecom infrastructure sites in Brazil, Peru and Colombia.

Shareholders include the French private equity investor Wendel Group, which has a 21.3% stake, Goldman Sachs, MTN Group Ltd, previously reported with a 29% stake, and many other leading investors including International Finance Corporation and Emerging Capital Partners. Wendel is a listed long-term capital investor in a group launched by Jean-Martin de Wendel in 1704.

As it expanded, IHS has raised $5.5bn in equity from its shareholders and debt over the years, including $1.3bn in debt in 2019.

Nigerian Stock Exchange launches SME Board

Photo credit: Nigerian Stock Exchange

Dynamic Nigerian entrepreneurs are in focus after the Nigerian Stock Exchange launched a growth board for fast-growing small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to help  businesses raise long-term risk capital and grow.

At the 29 January the bourse outlined the services on offer for businesses in the growth cycle. Services offered include: pre-listing diagnostics, institutional services (such as audit, financial advisory, legal advisory, corporate strategic advisory), investor relations, analyst coverage, corporate access and corporate governance.

According to the press release , Oscar Onyema, OON, CEO of the exchange told of collaboration at the launch: “We have partnered with relevant stakeholders to design a suite of cost-effective services to give listed companies a competitive edge within their respective industries while stimulating investors’ interest through enhanced information delivery.”

The new board has Entry Segment for companies with market capitalization from ₦50m ($136,000), compared to Standard Market for companies with market capitalization from ₦500m. Investors choose segments according to their investment preferences.

There other boards include the Main Board for well-established companies with a track record of commitment to high standards of disclosure and corporate governance. The Alternative Securities Market (ASeM) focuses on small to mid-sized companies. The Premium Board was added in August 2015 for companies that meet the most stringent listing criteria of capitalization, corporate governance and liquidity and aims to provide a platform for greater global visibility to attract global capital flows and reduce the cost of funding. 

Mr Onyema outlined the contribution of SMEs to jobs and growth in Nigeria: “SMEs have contributed about 48% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the last 5 years, according to the Nigeria Bureau of Statistics. This segment of the economy also accounts for 96% of operational businesses and 84% of employment.

“Despite these significant contributions, SMEs face significant challenges, including lack of right-sized and right-priced financing. With the launch of the Growth Board, the Exchange is, therefore, offering issuers relaxed entry criteria as well as less stringent ongoing listing requirements to allow for greater accessibility to finance, global visibility and credibility through corporate disclosures.”

SEC Nigeria clears Nigerian Stock Exchange demutualization

Next step in the long demutulization of Nigerian Stock Exchange will be a court ordered meeting and an extraordinary general meeting. The demutualization is set to transform another of Africa’s most dynamic exchanges.

Last month (January 2020)  the bourse received a letter from the Securities and Exchange Commission Nigeria with “no objection” to its planned conversion from a not-for-profit entity limited by guarantee into a profit-making, public limited liability company owned by shareholders.

Oscar Onyema, CEO said (in a press release): “With this consent, the Exchange will proceed quickly to the next phase of holding a Court Ordered Meeting and an Extraordinary General Meeting to pass requisite resolutions including the approval of the draft Constitution; basis of allotment and split of shares between members; approval of new Board of Directors; and approval of new corporate governance and regulatory structures.”

In March 2017 the Members of the Exchange passed resolutions that authorized the Council and Management to proceed with the process. President Muhammadu Buhari signed the Demutualisation of The Nigerian Stock Exchange Bill into law on 29 August 2018, authorizing NSE to convert to a shareholder-owned public company limited by shares.

Africa issuers raised $341m in 6 months, down 28%

Enterprises based in Africa raised $341 million through equity issues in the first half of 2019, down 28% on the $472m raised in the first half of 2018. Law firm Baker McKenzie has published its Cross-Border IPO Index for H1 2019, using data sourced from Refinitiv, and says this was mainly because only $85m was raised from 4 initial public offers (IPOs) on African exchanges, down 80% from $419m from 4 IPOs in the first half of 2018.

The numbers exclude mega issues by Africa-focused issuers based outside Africa. These include $750m raised on 28 June by the IPO for UK-headquartered Airtel Africa (read about the slow first day) which operates in 14 countries; and $196m raised by pan-Africa e-commerce Jumia Group (headquartered in Germany) on the New York Stock Exchange in April, see our article about the share price performance since then. Jumia sells in 13 African countries and is top e-commerce website with over 15m monthly visitors in Nigeria.

Wildu du Plessis, Head of Capital Markets at Baker McKenzie in Johannesburg, says in a press release: “The drop in African IPO values in H1 2019 was mostly because of political and economic uncertainty on the continent. Investors wanting to raise capital in Africa are thinking twice and waiting for political and economic stability to return before going ahead. Also eroding investor confidence in Africa are the escalating global trade tensions, which have culminated in, for example, the so-called United States (US) China trade wars and the possibility of a “no deal Brexit” – both have the potential to impact African economies significantly.”

Egypt buzzing

Listing bell and trading floor of the Egyptian Exchange

Baker McKenzie says Egypt is generating buzz around its pipeline of IPOs with some speculating this could be the busiest year for listings in Cairo since the uprising in 2011. Growing confidence in economic policies introduced since the currency float has boosted the Egyptian Exchange (EGX) and is prompting companies to consider share sales.

In April Khalid Abel Rahman, Assistant Minister of Finance for Capital Market Affairs, said the Government was embarking on an IPO programme is to raise EGP100bn ($5.8bn). Mohamed Farid, Chairman of the Egyptian Exchange, said that three private companies expect to launch initial public offerings (IPOs) before the end of 2019,

Baker McKenzie says a large IPO is Carbon Holdings Ltd, expected to raise $250m by selling a 30% stake and listing in London and Egypt. The company has missed the Q2 timetable mentioned by Karim Helal, Managing Director of Corporate Finance and Investor Relations, in this article last September. EFG Hermes is acting as advisor and global coordinator for the IPO, Baker & McKenzie is local legal counsel, and White & Case is international counsel.

Another large IPO is expected from Banque du Caire SAE, owned by Egypt’s second-largest state-owned bank Banque Misr. The bank has announced it will offer a 20%-30% of its shares for sale through private placement and public offering. The offer is expected to raise $300m-$400m and is forecast to happen in Q3 or Q4.

Hard work in South Africa

Du Plessis warns that governance concerns held back capital raising in South Africa: “Capital raising has decreased substantially in recent years, also due to economic and political uncertainty. Political stability will hopefully begin to return now that country’s elections are over, but there is still a lot of work to do to stabilise the economy. The World Bank recently downgraded South Africa’s growth rates and I think there is at least another year of hard work before the economy starts to recuperate and capital markets in South Africa recover,” Du Plessis says.

Life returns in Nigeria

Du Plessis adds: “There are also signs of life returning to Nigeria’s capital markets. Political instability was also to blame for a big collapse in capital raising in Nigeria in recent years, but the country looks to be recovering”. Baker McKenzie’s recent Global Transactions Forecast predicts more IPOs in Nigeria in the next 3 years. “Hopefully this is the start of a long upswing in capital raising activity in the country,” says Du Plessis.

Not specifically mentioned was the $5.1bn listing of MTN Nigeria on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (see article), which is expected to be followed by a public offering of shares soon.

By sector (details from Baker McKenzie, Enko Capital and other sources)

Energy and power: South African company Renergen Ltd, which produces natural gas and helium, in an IPO in Australia offered 12.5m shares at AUD0.80 to raise AUD10m ($7m) for its Virginia Gas Project in South Africa. Financial: Banking group Oragroup listed on the Bourse Régionale des Valeurs Mobilières (BRVM) in April after a successful IPO in Oct-Nov 2018, selling 20% of the shares to raise XOF56.92bn ($101.2m) in the largest share offer on the BRVM.
Technology: It was reported by Enko that telco Mascom could do an IPO in Botswana later this year and Econet’s Strive Masiyiwa says it will be in October and will be the biggest listing on the Botswana Stock Exchange, according to this report. Namibia’s MTC (Mobile Telecommunications Corporation) has announced plans for an IPO in Mar-June 2020.
Real estate: ICON Properties PLC’s IPO last December in Malawi raised $19.3m, and the shares were listed on the Malawi Stock Exchange in January.
Industrial: Skyway Aviation Handling Co (SAHCOL) in Nigeria launched an IPO in November 2018 but only raised NGN1.2bn ($3.4m) compared to a target of NGN1.9bn ($5.2m) despite extending the offer until January. It listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange on 24 April.
Healthcare: Speed Medical SAE raised EGP21.5m ($1.3m), less than half its target in a domestic IPO before listing on the Egyptian Exchange in April. Consumer: Eastern Tobacco, listed on the EGX, announced in March that it had raised EGP1.7bn ($104m) through offering 4.5% of its shares in public and private offers.

Global Outlook

The Africa picture mirrors a global 37% fall in capital raised through IPOs in global markets, compared to the first 6 months of 2018. According to Baker McKenzie, a total of $69.8bn was raised across 514 IPOs, which is the lowest for value and volume since 2016. The US Federal government shutdown, continuing trade tensions between the US and Beijing, the ongoing Brexit saga and the decline of mega IPOs all contributed to a slower market performance. “With fewer IPOs in the market, competition amongst exchanges is growing, as some listing locations make strategic changes to entice public offerings. The introduction of China’s Science and Technology Innovation Board looks set to shake up the market and challenge New York and Hong Kong for tech listings. “

Koen Vanhaerents, Baker McKenzie’s Head of Global Capital Markets, says: “.. significant political issues stifled activity, along with a change in investor sentiment towards risk – particularly among pre-revenue companies.” The decline “is perhaps skewed slightly when compared to the stellar performance seen in the same period in 2018. With a strong pipeline, H2 2019 looks set to deliver a much more prosperous performance overall.”

EMEA outlook

The EMEA IPO market struggled during the first 6 months of 2019 due to uncertainties surrounding the UK’s exit from the European Union. Overall capital raised fell by 67% compared to the same period in 2018 to $9.2bn while the number of IPOs fell by 61% to 47. Cross-border activity was even more profoundly impacted with only three listings in EMEA and only one of those on the London Stock Exchange. Domestic activity levels helped the London Stock Exchange to retain the top spot for overall capital raising at $2.7bn from 12 listings. Seven of these listings were from the financials sector and raised almost $2bn, the largest of which was Network International’s $1.4bn IPO.

Second to London was Borsa Italiana with $2.3bn from 7 listings, boosted by the $2.2bn Nexi SpA listing. SIX Swiss exchange pulled in $1.9bn from 2 IPOs, with Stadler Rail’s debut accounting for $1.3bn of that.

Despite its sluggish performance, EMEA is proving to be the region of choice for FinTech listings, particularly in the payments field, as the age of digitization and cashless transactions continues to explode, fueling the need for innovation and technological growth. FinTech listings accounted for more than a third of capital raised and the largest listing was Nexi SpA’s IPO.

Weak reception for Airtel Africa $750m IPO

Share price chart from ADVFN ( https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/airtel-africa-AAF/share-chart )

Shares in Africa’s second biggest telecom company had a disappointing start in conditional trading on the London Stock Exchange today. The initial public offer had been priced at the bottom of the 80p-100p range, and in exchange trading it quickly plummeted 16% from 80p and by 4pm the shares had retreated to around 67p.

Today the trading was conditional, only for holders allocated shares in the global IPO. The shares are set to start trading unconditionally on the LSE from 3 July and Airtel Africa will be dual-listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange from 5 July.

The offer of 744.0m shares had raised approximately £595 million ($750m), including 39.2m shares offered to Nigerian institutional and high net worth investors for a total Nigerian offer of some $39.4m.

According to this morning’s stock exchange news service RNS announcement : “The offer was oversubscribed with strong interest from a variety of reputed global investors across the United Kingdom, United States, Africa, Europe, Middle East and Asia. Dominant allocation to Global long only, strategic and pre-IPO investors.”

There is an over-allotment option of 67.6 new shares which, if exercised in full, would account for approximately £54m of the offer. Including the overallotment option, the market capitalization at this afternoon’s price is some £2.6bn ($3.2bn), down from the offer valuation of £3.1bn.

After the IPO the free float was 19% but after including pre-IPO investors holdings the free float will be over 25% and it aims to be included in FTSE UK indices.

According to the RNS announcement, Raghunath Mandava, CEO of Airtel Africa, said: “We are delighted by the strong response we have received.. This is a proud moment for the team that has built Airtel Africa into the second largest mobile operator in Africa. We are now the first telecom company to simultaneously list on the Premium segment of the London Stock Exchange and Nigerian Stock Exchange through an IPO.”

According to our article in January and this month in here and today’s article in the Financial Times a consortium of investors including SoftBank Group, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund Temasek, Singapore Telecommunications and private equity firm Warburg Pincus invested $1.25bn at a valuation of around $4.4bn last October. In January this year Qatar Investment Authority invested $200m at a valuation closer to $5bn.

At that stage it was anticipated that the London and Nigeria IPOs would raise $1.25bn.

The IPO was advised by 8 global banks: JP Morgan, Citigroup, BofA Merrill Lynch, Absa Group Limited, Barclays Bank PLC, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs International and Standard Bank.

Indian parent Bharti Airtel aims to use the funds to slash debt and free cash to combat rival Reliance Jio Infocomm in India.

Airtel Africa is the holding company for Bharti Airtel’s operations in 14 countries, including Kenya, Tanzania, Nigeria and Ghana. It is Africa’s second largest telco with over 94m customers, and ranked in the top 2 carriers in most of the countries where it operates, offering 2G, 3G and 4G services, plus mobile commerce through Airtel Money.

Performance had improved after years of losses against financially stronger telco players in Africa, including Vodacom. Rising mobile data consumption had helped it reach a first full year of profit and the figures for the year to 31 March were revenue of more than $3bn and operating profit of $734m.

Airtel Tanzania HQ (photo by Prof.Chen Hualin creative commons by Wikipedia)

Airtel Africa confirms June $750m listing in London

Airtel Tanzania HQ (photo by Prof.Chen Hualin – Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, creative commons by Wikipedia

Airtel Africa has confirmed that it is going ahead in June 2019 with its $750 million listing on the main market of the London Stock Exchange, as flagged up in January in our article. Owned by India’s Bharti Airtel, it is Africa’s second biggest mobile operator with operations in 14 countries and has 99m subscribers and 14.2m mobile money customers.

It said this week that it is aiming for a premium listing on the main market of the LSE, meaning it will float at least 25% of hits shares. It could offer up to 15% more shares through an overallotment option, according to a report in Financial Times which reports that the group says the exact number of shares to be sold and the indicative price range of the offer will be determined “in due course”.

Airtel will use the proceeds to cut the ratio of net debt to EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) to 2.5x, according to City AM. It also plans to expand data and mobile money services across Africa.

It is also considering a listing on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, according to reports.

Advisers and joint bookrunners appointed are JP Morgan, BofA Merrill Lynch, Citigroup, Absa, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, HSBC and the Standard Bank of Africa but the sole as its advisers. JP Morgan will be sole sponsor; BofA Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and JPMorgan will also act as joint global co-ordinators.

The amount to be raised in the listing is down from the figure of $1bn given by Reuters on 28 May quoting Airtel, and the $1.25bn figure in January and February.

For the year to 31 March it posted revenue of more than $3bn and operating profit of $734m. For more background on the shareholders and earlier capital raises, read our earlier report.

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MTN Nigeria shares soaring after $5bn listing

Telecommunications firm MTN Nigeria has had strong days of trading since it joined the Nigerian Stock Exchange in a listing by introduction on 16 May. As it moves closer to what the company may feel is “fair value”, chances of a future initial public offering (IPO) increase.

The $5.1bn listing of 20.4 billion (20,354,513,050) ordinary shares of MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTNN) at N90 per share on the Premium Board makes it the second biggest stock on the NSE after Dangote Cement plc and ahead of Nestle Nigeria plc, according to Bloomberg. It is the Nigerian unit of MTN Group Ltd, Africa’s biggest mobile-phone company.

Journalist Shola Lawal writing in Mail and Guardian newspaper described the scene: “At exactly 2.30pm, when the stock market closed on Thursday, MTN Nigeria’s chairperson Pascal Dozie and Ferdi Moolman, MTN Nigeria’s CEO, excitedly clanged metal sticks on a gong on the crowded trade floor at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) building. The room, filled with brokers in their maroon jackets, erupted in celebration.”

The shares were priced at N90 and have since climbed some 10% a day to reach N119.75 by close of business on 20 May. The main shareholders are only letting a few shares go until the share gets a higher price, according to an interesting interview by Kayode Omosebi, Team Lead, Financial Advisory at ARM Securities on CNBC. He estimates the stock will keep moving until it gets past N130 when more stock could become available, but his firm estimates “fair value” at N149.

Omesebi adds that interest has been wide including retail investors, and could spark a revival of interest in other equities. It will also widen liquidity across telecom stocks in Africa as investors will have a wider range of shares in South Africa, Kenya, Ghana and other markets.

The NSE listing is part of a settlement with the Federal Government of Nigeria after a $5.2bn fine was imposed for failing to meet at 2016 deadline to register SIM cards. In September 2018 there was a $2bn bill for back taxes, and the Central Bank of Nigeria said it has illegally repatriated $8.1bn between 2007 and 2015.

The initial plan was for a share offer or IPO, and MTN Chairman Dozie was not giving any timetable for when that will come: “We were to have an IPO but due to unforeseen circumstances we couldn’t. Half bread is better than none.”

Oscar Onyema, Chief Executive Officer of NSE, said in a press release: “Having MTN Nigeria listed in our market is a testament of the exchange’s commitment to building a dynamic and inclusive market and creating channels for sustainable investment. This listing will promote liquidity for MTN Nigeria, enhance its value and increase transparency, as our platform remains one of the best avenues for raising capital and enabling sustainable growth for national development”.

Analysts also hope that the listing will encourage international oil companies and two other key telecoms firms, Airtel and Globacom.

Mail and Guardian quotes Ugo Obi-Chukwu, founder of leading financial literacy website, Nairametrics: “The last time we had any major listings was in the early 2000s and it was the Government that stimulated those listings… This will open the floodgates for more listings and possibly renew an interest in the stock market.”

The premium board is “a listing segment for the elite group of issuers that meet The Exchange’s most stringent corporate governance and listing standards. This Board features Dangote Cement Plc, FBN Holdings Plc, Zenith International Bank Plc, Access Bank Plc, Lafarge Africa Plc, Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc and United Bank for Africa Plc,” according to the NSE.

Work starts on African exchanges linkage project

Africa’s stock exchanges, regulators, central banks, stockbrokers and clearing systems are working together on the African Exchanges Linkage Project (AELP), set to create trading and information links between the 7 leading securities exchanges.

Participating exchanges at the first capital markets stakeholders’ roundtable were the West African regional exchange Bourse Regionale Valeures Mobilieres (BRVM), Casablanca Stock Exchange, The Egyptian Exchange, Johannesburg Stock Exchange, Nairobi Securities Exchange, The Nigerian Stock Exchange and the Stock Exchange of Mauritius.

The linkage project is a joint initiative by African Development Bank and African Securities Exchanges Association. It aims to facilitate cross-border trading and settlement of securities, unlock pan-African investment flows, promote innovations and diverse investments, and address lack of depth and liquidity in Africa’s financial markets. For more background, see our recent article.

The project is backed by $980,000 grant through the African Development Bank Korea-Africa Economic Cooperation Trust Fund (KOAFEC).

Karim Hajji, ASEA President and chief executive of the Casablanca Stock Exchange, said according to the press release: “Regional integration is a high-priority continental agenda. By organically linking 7 exchanges in Africa which collectively have a market capitalization of over US$1.4 trillion, the AELP will stimulate intra-African flows and provide opportunities for investors and trading participants in over fourteen African countries.

“With the expected outcome of boosting liquidity in African capital markets, the AELP will unlock the powerful potential of African markets to access and redistribute domestic capital for economic development.”

Pierre Guislain, African Development Bank’s Vice-President, Private Sector, Infrastructure and Industrialization, said: “The partnership between us and ASEA complements the Bank’s interventions towards deep and resilient capital markets in Africa. The African Exchanges Linkage Project will contribute to a wider financing pool for African corporates and SMEs and help close Africa’s infrastructure deficit, estimated at US$67–107 billion annually. Indeed, the continent needs deep, liquid and linked capital markets that will enable accelerated mobilization of domestic resources and incentivize private financing of infrastructure”.

Participating partners at the workshop on 24 April at African Development Bank’s headquarters included:
• Regulators Le Conseil Régional de l’Epargne Publique et des Marchés Financiers, Autorité Marocaine du Marché des Capitaux, Securities and Exchanges Commission of Nigeria, and the Capital Markets Authority of Kenya.
• Central bank – Banque Centrale des Etats de l’Afrique de l’Ouest,
• Stockbrokers and exchanges associations – Association Professionnelle des Sociétés de Bourse, Association of Stockbroking Houses of Nigeria, Kenya Association of Stockbrokers and Investment Bankers
• Clearing systems – Association Professionnelle des Banques Teneurs de Compte Conservateurs, Maroclear, Central Securities Clearing System – Nigeria, Central Depository and Settlement Corporation Ltd. – Kenya
• Investment banking – Afrinvest West Africa.

Pierre Guislain of African Development Bank and Karim Hajji of African Securities Exchanges Association and Casablanca Stock Exchange

Africa’s eurobond outlook 2019

A good overview of Africa’s  $92bn eurobond market, with a summary of 2018 and 5 key themes for 2019, written by Gregory Smith, Director and Fixed Income Strategist for Emerging Markets at Renaissance Capital, is available on LinkedIn.

Overall there are 20 African eurobond issuers with the largest issuers South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria, also Africa’s 3 largest economies.

About 2018, he wrote: “Despite the tough markets 2018 was a record year for African sovereign issuance and saw a growing preference for euro-denominated eurobonds, and longer maturity eurobonds. The $25.8 billion issued by African countries in 2018 makes up 28% of the current stock of African eurobonds. Angola, Egypt, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal and South Africa each issued 30-year paper.”

Source: Renaissance Capital

As highlighted previously, there were 2 upgrades in credit ratings for Eurobond issuers during 2018. S&P upgraded Ghana and Republic of Congo. However, Moody’s downgraded 5 countries: Angola, Kenya, Gabon, Tunisia and S&P and Fitch joined in downgrading Zambia.

Key trends Smith focuses on for 2019:

  1. International market turbulence is the top trend. It will be good news for many African countries if the US dollar gets weaker internationally and the US Federal Reserve holds back from raising US interest rates as much as previously anticipated. But there are global downside risks to issuers, including lower global growth impacted by strained US-China relations.
  2. Will key issuers make enough progress with economic reforms? Reforms such as lower deficits and adequate foreign exchange reserves are needed to support economic growth and make the debt sustainable. If markets get tough in 2019 (see previous), reforming economies do best. Check Smith’s list of 10 African Eurobond issuers busy with reform programmes under guidance of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the 2 issuers, Zambia and Republic of Congo, still talking but not ready to start IMF programmes.
  3. Policymakers’ skills at managing their debt, particularly as a period of heavy bond repayments begins in 2022 and remains high until 2025. Strong debt management skills include “economic policy coordination, an understanding of debt risks, a debt strategy, good data management, regular public reporting, good investor communication, a skilled team that can negotiate good terms with potential global lenders” as well as redeeming some debt ahead of maturity by longer term issues
  4. Elections in eurobond issuers this year (in approximate date order): Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Mozambique, Tunisia and Namibia.
  5. This year is unlikely to see as many eurobonds issued as last year. “Those most likely to issue in 2019 include Egypt, Angola, Ghana, and Kenya”.

For deeper analysis and more details and charts, see the original posting on LinkedIn here.

 NB Gregory Smith points out his views are for information, they do not constitute investment advice.

SEC Nigeria leads FSD Africa programme to boost capital markets regulators

Left to right: Reginald Karawusa (Director, Legal and Enforcement, SEC), Laure Beufils (Deputy High Commissioner), Mary Uduk (ag Director General, SEC), Evans Osano (Director Financial Markets, FSD Africa), Richard Sandall (Senior Advisor, DFID Nigeria).

Funding organization FSD Africa is launching a 3-year programme to improve skills of Africa’s capital market regulators. The Securities and Exchange Commission SEC Nigeria is the first capital-market regulator after signing an agreement worth £450,000 ($585,200) on 28 September.
The programme will also be rolled out in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe. FSD Africa is a non-profit funded by UK Aid, which is Department for International Development (DFID) and the British Government.
FSD Africa will provide funding over 3 years to build the capacity of regulators, providing technical assistance, encouraging closer collaboration among regulators and conducting research to support the development of new policies and regulations.
Evans Osano, Director Financial Markets at FSD Africa, says (emailed press release): “This partnership will unlock capital by improving investor and issuer confidence, reducing transaction costs and reducing the complexity and approval times for capital issuance. The programme will also support greater collaboration and knowledge sharing with other African capital market regulators.”
FSDA Director Mark Napier says: “Well-functioning capital markets can play a vital role in support of inclusive economic growth by channelling long term finance into infrastructure and other large-scale projects that create jobs and improve access to markets. Strengthening regulatory capacity in capital markets is an essential pre-condition for building investor confidence.”
Mary Uduk, Acting Director General of SEC Nigeria, says the collaboration will facilitate access to capital for private and public issuers and enhance the competitiveness of the Nigerian capital market as a global investment destination. SEC Nigeria is contributing £22,000.
According to a report in the local news Independent the project will promote regulation of financial technology; fund an audit of institutional capacity and implementing the recommendations; and back collaboration and knowledge sharing between regulators.
Laure Beaufils, Deputy High Commissioner, British Deputy High Commission Lagos, commenting on the programme, added that capital markets have an essential role to play to help unlock capital that can be invested in the real economy and that can contribute to job creation and inclusive growth.