Archive for the 'Mozambique' Category
May 13th, 2013 by Tom Minney
African countries (apart from South Africa) are set to place $7 billion of debt this year, buoyed by low interest rates and a huge global appetite. According to this article in Bloomberg Businessweek by Roben Farzad, this year’s debt issues will be more than the previous 5 years combined and African capital markets are feeling the boom.
No wonder international investors who are “grabbing for yield and growth” (according to Farzad) are looking to Africa which the International Monetary Fund forecasts will grow at 5.6% this year against 1.2% in developed countries. But Africa’s terrible infrastructure, including electricity, bridges, roads and wastewater treatment, is costing African sat least 2 percentage points of growth. Some of the new bond proceeds are likely to go on infrastructure, which needs investments of up to $93 billion a year.
The article cites research from JP Morgan Chase that average yields on African debt fell 88 basis points in the past 12 months, to 4.35%. “Nigeria, Gabon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Namibia, the Congo, Senegal, and the Seychelles have all seen their borrowing costs fall this year.”
“It’s a hugely exciting story,” Jim O’Neill, the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management who plans to retire this year, said in an April 23 interview with Bloomberg Television in London, writes Bloomberg reporter Chris Kay: “The only thing one has to be a little bit careful of are many of those markets are still very undeveloped and suddenly there’s a lot of people around the world regarding Africa to be sort of fashionable and trendy.”
Farzad wonders how easy it will be to “service so much easy-money debt when the credit cycle turns, or if commodities and political stability decline. At least for now, though, you get the impression that sub-Saharan Africa has turned a corner in global capital markets.” And journalist Chris Kay quotes Charles Robertson, global chief economist at Renaissance Capital: “For governments, great, don’t look a gift horse in the mouth. I still don’t believe investors are getting risk-adjusted returns in the dollar-bond space.”
According to Kay, debt-forgiveness programmes have helped 45 African nations cut debt to about 42% of gross domestic product this year from an average 120% in 2000, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and IMF estimates. South Africa’s Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan says debt will peak at 40% of GDP in 2016, compared with more than 100% for the U.S. and an average 93% in the eurozone.
Another reason why Africa offers lower risk is that taxpayers have no expectations of massive social and other spending in nearly all countries. Meanwhile global appetites are shown by the $20 trillion reportedly invested in debt at less than 1% yield.
Some potential issues
Nigeria planning to offer $1bn in Eurobonds and a $500m Diaspora bond, according to Minister of State for Finance Yerima Ngama. It was recently included in JP Morgan and Barclays local bond indices. Yields on the existing $500m Eurobond, due 2021, were down to 4.05% by 3 May, from a peak of 7.30% in October 2011.
Kenya really boosted investor confidence in Africa with its peaceful outcome after elections on 4 March and the Finance Minister Robinson Githae said on 11 March they could be in line to issue up to $1bn by September.
Ghana fuelled by an oil boom, has seen its debt yields on the 10-year bonds down 3.43 percentage points to 4.82% since their issue in October 2007, said Bloomberg.
Zambia successfully raised $750m last year at 5.625% and is thinking to return for another $1bn. Yields were up 20 basis points to 5.66% by 3 May.
Tanzania has asked Citigroup to help it get a credit rating before issuing a maiden Eurobond of at least $500m. Finance Minister William Mgimwa said a total of $2.5bn was bid for a private offering of $600m of Government debt in March. According to this story on Reuters that bond’s pricing and structure at the time had shocked markets and appeared to benefit investors: “The cheaply priced US$600m seven-year private placement was described as a “disaster” by one banker. And certainly the immediate secondary market performance looked terrible. The bonds jumped 2.75 points on their first day of trading.. That works out at a cost to the government of US$4m a year in coupon payments, assuming that the bonds could have priced at the tighter level.”
Angola did a private sale of $1bn in debt in 2012 and will go for $2 billion this year, according to Andrey Kostin Chairman of VTB Bank OJSC, who helped arrange the first issuance, last October.
Mozambique and Uganda may also issue foreign currency bonds of $500m each, according to Moody’s last October.
Gabon’s $1bn of dollar bonds are down 4.78 percentage points to 3.13% since they were issued in December 2007.
October 5th, 2012 by Tom Minney
The World Bank has cut its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa. Earlier in the year it forecast 5.2% growth overall for SSA economies in 2012, but yesterday (4 Oct) it cut this to 4.8%. World Bank said in its bi-annual Africa’s Pulse report that Africa is still vulnerable to a fragile global economy and a slowdown in China, although high commodity prices and an increase in exports from countries that have made mineral discoveries are likely to underpin growth for the rest of 2012.
Africa achieved 4.9% growth in 2011. According to the study, excluding South Africa, the continent’s biggest economy, growth is likely to hit 6% in 2012. Strong performers are expected to include countries such as Mozambique, home to some of the world’s biggest untapped natural gas reserves, and Sierra Leone which has started exporting iron ore, according to a story on Reuters. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is projected to rise to $48.7 billion by 2014 from $31bn in 2012, as investor interest in Africa soars. African exports rebounded in the first quarter of 2012, growing at an annual pace of 32%, up from the -11% pace recorded in the last quarter of 2011.
World Bank Vice-President for Africa, Makhtar Diop, said in a press release: “A third of African countries will grow at or above 6%, with some of the fastest growing ones buoyed by new mineral exports and by factors such as the return to peace in Côte d’Ivoire, as well as strong growth in countries such as Ethiopia. An important indicator of how Africa is on the move is that investor interest in the region remains strong.. despite difficult global conditions.”
Most of SSA “middle income” by 2025
The majority of sub-Saharan Africa’s 48 countries could also achieve middle-income status by 2025 though their dependency on natural resources is likely to continue in the medium term, it added. Shantayanan Devarajan, the World Bank’s chief Africa economist, said that this highlights the need for governments to spend their resource wealth wisely and focus on public investment: “Resource-rich African countries have to make the conscious choice to invest in better health, education and jobs, and less poverty for their people because it will not happen automatically when countries strike it rich,” he said.
Diop said there was an opportunity for “strengthening economic transparency and financial controls around the new discoveries, to leverage their full potential through development policies that increase economic growth, create jobs, reduce poverty, and improve health and education especially for young people and future generations, while balancing the immediate needs.”
The World Bank said that after 10 years of economic advancement, 22 of Africa’s 48 countries have officially achieved middle-income status and another 10 could reach middle-income status by 2025 if current growth trends continue. It warned that recent soaring prices for wheat and corn were a concern, after the worst U.S. drought in 50 years. Africa’s Sahel region is already suffering from higher food prices, high rates of malnutrition and recurring crisis and insecurity. Furthermore, swarms of desert locusts and the ongoing conflict in The Sahel also undermine the region’s food security, including Mali and Niger.
Development gains – poverty and child mortality down
Child mortality has also been declining. Between 2005 and 2008, for the first time the absolute number of people living on $1.25 a day fell, as poverty rates on the continent have been falling faster than one percentage point a year. With fast population growth Africa is urbanizing rapidly and 41% of Africans live in cities, with an additional 1% every 2 years. By 2033, Africa – like the rest of the world – will be a majority urban continent. The bank says this has deep implications for social and economic opportunities as urbanization and development go together and it claims that no country has ever reached high income with low urbanization.
July 6th, 2012 by Tom Minney
The 10 stock exchanges of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are working together to increase the effectiveness of their markets. The Committee of SADC Stock Exchanges (CoSSE) has agreed to concentrate on 6 priority areas in support of regional moves to more efficient capital markets.
The stock exchanges will explore ways to use technology to link their trading and order systems and work together to ensure clearing and settlement systems align with global standards adopted in April. They are working closely with SADC institutions to support development of regional systems, including payment and will boost visibility of trading data and enhance their joint website (www.cossesadc.org), launched in April by the JSE and I-Net Bridge. The bourses will also pool resources to accelerate training and skills development for capital markets staff.
CoSSE members are Botswana Stock Exchange, Malawi Stock Exchange, Stock Exchange of Mauritius, Bolsa de Valores de Moçambique, Namibian Stock Exchange, South Africa’s JSE Ltd, Swaziland Stock Exchange, Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange of Tanzania, Zambia’s Lusaka Stock Exchange, and the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange. They met on 25 June in Gaborone, Botswana in a meeting convened by CoSSE with support from SADC Secretariat.
“Stock exchanges have their roles cut out in each of our economies to augment our governments’ efforts to grow national economies for the greater good and as part of the SADC region’s struggle for growth to escape poverty,” says Mrs Beatrice Nkanza, Chairperson of CoSSE and CEO of the Lusaka Stock Exchange. “They are the channel for long-term risk capital, which is urgently needed for the region’s businesses, infrastructure providers and even governments. They also encourage saving and investment. CoSSE members are working closely together to support SADC initiatives and to make individual markets even more effective”.
CoSSE was set up in 1997 as a collective body of the stock exchanges in the Southern African Development Community (SADC). It promotes co-operation and collaboration between member stock exchanges and is resourced by a Secretariat, supported by the JSE. SADC defines CoSSE’s role in the Finance and Investment Protocol and other policy documents and CoSSE has links to ministerial and senior treasury bodies and also works closely with the Committee of Insurance, Securities and Non-Banking Financial Authorities (CISNA) and the Committee of Central Bank Governors (CCBG).
CoSSE had set up three working committees to implement six business plans, prioritized from the initiatives identified in its Strategic Plan 2011-2016. These are:
1. Legal and Secretariat working committee – chaired by Geoff Rothschild of the JSE. This is responsible for formalizing and resourcing the Secretariat, and for continuing and improving liaison with CISNA and other SADC organs.
2. Market Development working committee – chaired by Vipin Mahabirsingh of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius. CoSSE has been developing models for inter-connectivity between automated trading systems at some or all member exchanges. The working committee will help member exchanges ensure their clearing and settlement systems comply with new global standards and support regional initiatives.
3. Capacity-Building and Visibility working committee – chaired by Anabela Chambuca Pinho of the Bolsa de Valores de Moçambique. This will liaise with member exchanges, regulators, stockbrokers, investors and others to develop and coordinate training courses. It will also enhance the new CoSSE website, help members to upgrade their own websites and to ensure their trading data and company news are disseminated internationally.
Progress will be guided by an Executive Committee, consisting of CoSSE Chairperson Mrs Nkanza, CoSSE Vice-Chairperson Gabriel Kitua (CEO of the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange in Tanzania) and the three working committee chairpersons. The strategic plan was developed with assistance from FinMark Trust.
For more information contact
• Beatrice Nkanza, CEO Lusaka Stock Exchange, tel +260 (1) 228391 or email nkanzab [at] luse.co.zm
• Gabriel Kitua, CEO Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange, tel +255 22 2135779 or email gabriel.kitua [at] dse.co.tz.
• Pearl Moatshe of CoSSE Secretariat, tel +27 11 5207118 or email pearlm [at] jse.co.za
May 4th, 2011 by Tom Minney
A private equity fund that invests in housing, agriculture, education and health says it has raised more than $250 million for its first fund, Vital Capital Fund I. Eytan Stibbe, founding managing partner at Vital Capital Investments LP (www.vital-capital.com) and chief investment officer was reported as telling Bloomberg yesterday (3 May) the fund aimed to invest in Angola, Ghana and Mozambique.
The fund includes retired U.S. Army General Wesley Clark among its advisory board members, is a proponent of “impact investing,” a strategy that places capital in ventures with social or environmental goals.
Stibbe says Vital Capital has already invested in Kora Housing, a developer of affordable housing in Angola. It aims to raise another $250 million.
November 17th, 2010 by Tom Minney
A UK-Mozambique Investment Forum 2010, is coming to London on 2 December. It is organized by the Government of Mozambique, with Africa Matters Limited and Developing Markets Associates. The Government of Mozambique is sending a high-level delegation, led by Hon Oldemiro Marques Baloi, (Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation), accompanied by Hon José Pacheco (Minister of Agriculture) and Hon Paulo Zuchula (Minister of Transport and Communications). Other ministries to be represented include finance, tourism, mineral resources and the Central Bank of Mozambique and other high-ranking officials and business leaders.
Mozambique has had consistently high economic growth recently. Topics include the economic outlook and investment opportunity, including inputs from the Investment Promotion Centre. Tourism, agriculture, mining and infrastructure development are all key sectors for investment and each has its own session, featuring top private sector investors and leading Government officers and ministers.
According to the promoters: “The day’s programme is designed to paint a contemporary picture of the investment climate in Mozambique and the country’s on-going efforts to attract foreign direct investment. This will be followed by further bilateral meetings, as may be required, on specific investment opportunities. The audience at the Forum will include many of the most senior institutional investors in Europe and will be one of the most significant promotions to date of Mozambique’s efforts to attract investment on the international stage.”
Top UK speakers and participants include Stephen O’Brien, Under-Secretary of State for International Development, Lord Mark Malloch Brown (Royal African Society), Lord Richard Newby (Lib-Dem Treasury spokesperson) as well as Baroness Lynda Chalker, Chairman, Africa Matters Limited. Co-organizer is the High Commission of Mozambique.
For more information and invitations contact Robyn Kingston at Developing Markets Associates on tel: +44 (0)203 117 2500 or email robyn.kingston[at]developingmarkets[dot]com.
August 29th, 2010 by Tom Minney
South Africa’s Standard Bank (www.standardbank.com) will provide $100 million as credit to up to 750,000 farmers in 4 African countries in the next 3 years, according to an interview given by Clive Tasker, CEO for Africa, to Reuters newsagency. The bank is to offer the credit in Uganda, Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania to help boost agricultural production and economic growth. It is a pilot scheme agreed with some institutions and aims to boost export crops.
Reuters quotes Tasker as saying: “This scheme will disburse loans to small-holders of up to $100 million over the next 3 years and will potentially benefit up to 750,000 small-scale farmers.” He said the bank was also planning a broader financing scheme for other farmers in Africa and would consider projects that aimed at raising production of cash crops: “We are committed to financing agriculture across the full scope of the industry.”
Priority will go to growing crops such as cocoa in Ghana and cashew nuts in Mozambique. “We will help farmers with the right seeds, fertilisers, and ask them to have crop insurance to mitigate our risks,” Tasker said. He added the bank would finance farmers’ co-operatives and agro-businesses to boost trade. Increased production of crops would help African economies to grow and lift millions of people out of poverty.
Reuters reports that Africa has vast water resources and arable land but also food shortages, and says analysts partly blame this on mismanagement of funds, poor government policies and lack of support infrastructure for farmers.
Standard Bank said there was increasing global demand for African produced cocoa, coffee, tea and horticultural crops. Reuters says there is also increased investment, including equity funds seeking land deals and South African and other farmers who are investing in other African countries to grow cash crops.