Archive for the 'Kenya' Category
August 2nd, 2011 by Tom Minney
The International Finance Corporation (www.ifc.org) and 6 leading international finance institutions provided $164 million in financing to Rift Valley Railways International (www.riftvalleyrailways.com) to rehabilitate the Kenya-Uganda railway today (2 August). The aim is to boost cross-border trade and investment in East Africa. Other key shareholders are Kenya’s TransCentury, which listed on the Nairobi Stock Exchange on 14 July, and Uganda’s Bomi Holdings Ltd, reportedly owned by Charles Mbire. The financing is part of a $287m capital expenditure programme to improve the operating company’s infrastructure and rolling stock.
Other institutions participating in the package include: African Development Bank ($40m), Germany’s KfW Bankengruppe ($32m), Dutch Development Bank FMO ($20m), Kenya’s Equity Bank ($20m), Cordiant’s Infrastructure Crisis Fund ($20m) and the Belgian Investment Company for Developing Countries ($10m). The balance of the funding for the $287 million capital expenditure programme is being contributed by shareholders and generated through operations.
IFC is the largest financier to Rift Valley Railways and provides a $32m loan, of which $10m is already disbursed, and an additional $10m in equity to be committed. RVRI is a portfolio company of Citadel Capital, an Egypt-based private equity firm with $8.7 billion in investments across 14 countries in Africa.
The Kenya-Uganda railway line (apparently formerly nicknamed the “Lunatic Express”) has a track length of 2,350 kilometres with several branches extending from Mombasa, through Nairobi and right across key parts of Uganda. The rolling stock is 219 locomotives and 7,500 railroad cars. Brown Ondego, Group Chief Executive Officer of RVRI, said in a press release: “Our rehabilitation programme has already delivered impressive early results. Net “ton kilometres” were up 9% in the first half of 2011, compared with the same period last year, while turnaround times — a key measure of asset utilization — on the strategic Mombasa-Kampala route dropped 27% in the same period. Year-on-year, we have also seen a 30% drop in accidents per train kilometre.”
Karim Sadek, Managing Director at Citadel Capital, said: “This financing package is the backbone for an ambitious 5-year rehabilitation programme that will see Rift Valley Railways International make a quantum leap in operating standards as it addresses safety issues, completes due maintenance to improve reliability and hauling capacity, improves service to passengers, and captures long-term gains through investments in information technology.”
IFC has been key in encouraging private investment in the Kenya-Uganda railway since the consortium won the private management contract in 2005. After the project’s initial sponsor left, IFC led the restructuring of the shareholder group that resulted in the entry of new project sponsors and investors.
Jean Philippe Prosper, IFC Director for East Africa, said: “IFC has provided leadership and dedicated significant resources to encourage the turnaround of the Kenya-Uganda rail project. We are committed to the success of this railway as part of a broader effort to encourage private investment in infrastructure that promotes regional integration and social and economic development in Kenya, Uganda, and the surrounding region.”
Transport prices in East Africa are among the highest in the world, largely due to heavy reliance on trucking. A lack of operating capacity has resulted in rail capturing less than 10% of East Africa’s transport market. An efficient rail network has the capacity to reduce East African transport costs by as much as a third, since rail transport is more efficient to operate and in fuel.
IFC is a member of the World Bank Group and the largest global development institution focused exclusively on the private sector. In the fiscal year 2011, amid economic uncertainty across the globe, IFC said it boosted investments to an all-time high of nearly $19bn.
July 29th, 2011 by Tom Minney
[SPONSORED STORY] A top conference in October will be “Investment & Innovation in Microfinance: Africa” (www.microfinance-africa.com, date 17-19 October, at Hilton Nairobi Hotel, Kenya). This will cover new regulations, loan products, technologies and social performance tools that would make microfinance institutions (MFIs) more profitable.
Microfinance is financial services aimed at the “bottom of the pyramid”, representing more than 100 million low-income Africans. Services, including financial products, can help them work themselves and their families out of poverty. Effective microfinance can make a huge difference – if done right.
The conference is themed “Transform Your MFI: Comply with Regulation, Strengthen
Governance, Increase Funding, Adopt New Technology” and is the tenth global conference on this topic organized by Hanson Wade. It has a top line-up, including 24 expert speakers, workshops and side events, plus an Investor Fair featuring more than 40 microfinance investors active in Africa, from social investors to banks. Leading MFIs will come from across Africa including Tanzania, Kenya, Malawi, Ghana, Nigeria and Uganda to show participants how to transform their MFIs and their investment strategies.
The meeting is billed as a 3-day intensive learning experience, covering:
• Regulatory update: Recent changes to policy and regulation – Prof Njuguna Ndung’u, Governor, Central Bank of Kenya on enhanced financial inclusion.
• Get ready to become deposit-taking: PRIDE Tanzania and Opportunity Ghana showcase steps they took to keep costs down, maintain client confidence and fulfil the regulator’s expectations. Learn how to strengthen governance, build capacity and infrastructure and commit to social performance measurement to encourage increased funding.
• Who is investing in your country? Hear directly from investors what they are looking for and how you can ensure you benefit from their capital.
• Increase reach through new financial products: Jamii Bora, The Kuyasa Fund, Tujijenge Tanzania and MicroEnergy International showcase how they are increasing access to housing, health, agriculture, education and energy at the “base of the pyramid” (large numbers of poor borrowers and savers).
• Tackle over-indebtedness effectively through credit bureaus, social performance measurement and training. An in-depth working group will confront the challenge of competition and under-cutting and maintain the balance between commercial and social goals.
• Meet the technology providers of the future: From Management Information Systems to mobile, pinpoint which software is most user-friendly and least hassle to implement, and how tomorrow’s biggest service providers help you grow.
Participants at the 2011 conference will be senior directors from MFIs; commercial, social and development banks; local and national governments; non-governmental organizations and foundations; advisory firms; investors; companies which specialize in “base of pyramid” services and products; bankers’ associations; development finance institutions such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC); and bilateral aid agencies including the UK’s Department for International Development (DFID).
The conference is organized by top international organizer, Hanson Wade. Stephanie Cohn Rupp (Principal: Investments at Omidyar Network) commented: “Hanson Wade are fast becoming the deliverers of content and networking in this space”.
The conference already has an excellent website, where you can get full details and make bookings www.microfinance-africa.com. Or call: +44 20 3141 8700 or email: info@hansonwade.com. For a 10% discount for readers of this blog, please quote the booking code: ACMN.
July 15th, 2011 by Tom Minney
British American Investment Company (Kenya) Ltd (www.british-american.co.ke) launched its initial public offer (IPO) on 12 July, aiming to list on the Nairobi Stock Exchange. It aims to raise KES 5.58 billion (US$62.2 million) for expansion in the offer which is open until 5 August.
British American is issuing 650 m new ordinary shares at KES9 each. East African retail investors and foreign investors have each been allocated 30% of the shares, institutional investors 37% and employees, agents and individual life policy holders get the remaining 3%.
The offer was launched by Prime Minister Raila Odinga. He urged more people to use insurance products, and said market penetration is only 2.3% of GDP, according to Kenyan Broadcasting Corporation. The Standard newspaper reports him saying “I would like to take this opportunity to assure investors that Kenya is on a renewal path.”
Expansion: “missing middle” and new products
According to a report in Kenya’s Business Daily newspaper, of the money raised KES1 bn will be used for new investments and entry into the regional market while KES 1.3 bn would be used to grow its Kenyan insurance businesses and to expand its asset management business, including launching new funds for Kenyans in the diaspora as well as local and international investors.
The company will use KES2.5 bn to set up real estate investment trusts when the proposed law comes into effect and to develop property investments, including commercial buildings and housing units. KES750 m is to offset a loan from Commercial Bank of Africa (CBA) and KES 300 m is for offer expenses.
The paper reports British American’s chairman Nicholas Ashford-Hodges saying funds raised would be used to boost the company’s operations in Kenya and expand to regional markets: “This IPO will give British American an opportunity to increase the scope of its operations and widen its footprint.”
The company hopes to seize emerging opportunities through innovative products such as micro-insurance and bank-assurance. According to the Standard, managing director Benson Wairegi said the company is developing more products for the retail market and small and medium-sized businesses: “We seek to fundamentally redefine the scale and scope of the insurance sector in Kenya and the wider region. Our established model of scale, reach and multi-layered selling will also be extended to the retail market and SMEs in the wider geographical region.”
Regional expansion – Uganda, Tanzania, South Sudan, Rwanda
On 7 July, BAT launched an insurance services business in Uganda through a subsidiary, Britam Insurance Company (Uganda) Limited, which has a capital of UGX5.6 bn ($2.2m). It also aims to open offices in Tanzania, Rwanda, and Southern Sudan.
Profit turnaround
British American is also the holding company of British American Insurance Company (Kenya) Ltd and British American Asset Managers Ltd (BAAM).
The market capitalization of the new company will be KES19.4bn ($216.3m), the highest among listed insurance firms. CfC Insurance Holdings, which was listed by introduction in April, was valued at KES6.85bn as at the close of trading yesterday, Jubilee Holdings Ltd at KES8.86bn, and Pan African Insurance at KES1.92bn, according to the paper.
Business Daily reports that British American Group posted KES2.7 bn in profits after tax last year, up from KES421 mn loss in 2009. The company made KES4.68 bn (KES 196m in 2009) in investment income and KES220 m (KES 32 m) in other income.
July 7th, 2011 by Tom Minney
Kenyan private equity firm TransCentury (www.transcentury.co.ke) is to list through introduction at the Nairobi Stock Exchange on 14 July at a price of KES50 (USD0.58) a share. The firm began as an investment club and is valued at KES13.35 billion ($148.7 million). The listing price is based on the closing price on 3 June when it stopped trading on the Over-The-Counter market operated by Dyer & Blair. The aim of the NSE listing is to widen the share register and clear the way for future capital raising.
Listing by introduction means that no new shares are issued and was previously used by Equity Bank in 2006. Transcentury will list on the NSE’s Alternative Investment Market Segment (AIMS), which requires that a company must have at least 100 shareholders, with more than a fifth of the shares in the hands of investors who are not employees or relatives of the principal shareholders. To be listed on the main board, Transcentury would need at least 1,000 shareholders, net assets of KES 100m and paid-up share capital of KES 50m. TransCentury does not have 1,000 shareholders but could move to the main board if it increases its shareholding.
Transcentury started in 1997 as a small business club run by an elite group of 20 well-connected leading businessmen. It used the OTC market to widen to 430 share owners who have agreed to list 418 million shares, of which 151m will be reserved for buyers of a convertible bond on sale in Mauritius. Another 182m shares are in reserve.
Gachao Kiuna, TransCentury chief executive, was reported in Business Daily newspaper saying the listing provides a broader base of investors with an opportunity to participate “in significant growth potential” and offers TransCentury the opportunity to raise capital more easily in the future. He said the company is not in a hurry to raise more capital: “We have a bond programme in place that will serve us in the medium term. After about 24 months we might need to look at other ways of raising funds.”
Transcentury founders will be able to sell up to 50% of their shareholdings but must keep the rest for 2 years, in terms of rulings by Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority. According to the newspaper, 13 shareholders have more than 3% each, amounting to 190m shares or 71% of Transcentury. The largest single owner is the estate of the late James Gachui with an 8.37% stake worth KES1.12bn. Kenya Revenue Authority’s Commissioner General, Michael Waweru, has a 7.96% per cent stake worth KES Sh1.06bn, followed by businessman Peter Kanyango with a 7.17% stake worth KES957m, Dyer and Blair chairman Jimnah Mbaru and TransCentury’s chairman Zeph Mbugua with stakes worth KEs830m each.
Mauritius Eurobond
Transcentury has taken the interesting approach of raising low-cost financing through a $75m 6% convertible Eurobond, issued by Mauritian subsidiary TC Mauritius Holdings Limited which has already issued $35m. The company plans to list the Eurobond on the Mauritian stock exchange.
Private equity investment portfolio
According to its website, Trancentury invests in:
• Power Infrastructure: Manufacture of Electrical Cables, Conductors, Transformers and Switchgear
• Transport Infrastructure: Operation of the Kenya-Uganda Railway Concession
• Specialised Engineering: Distribution of Mission-Critical Industrial Equipment and Construction of Electrical Installations
“The philosophy is to pursue markets that display underpenetration and inefficiency”. Africa suffers a chronic under supply of power and transportation, and even when these services are available, the costs are multiples of comparable services in developed markets.
TransCentury owns stakes in cable factories which include East African Cables in Kenya and Tanzania, Cableries du Congo in DR Congo and Kweberg Cables in South Africa, which manufacture wires and transmission cables under its power infrastructure division. The company recently acquired 80% of Pende Electrical, based in the copper-belt region of Zambia, through its Tanzania subsidiary Tanelec Ltd. It is busy in energy in 5 countries.
The Information Memorandum indicates that TransCentury intends to invest KES 2.2bn raised through the bonds “in the KES 23bn capital expenditure programme to revitalize Rift Valley Railways and unlock the significant value of the railway.” Shareholders in the Kenya-Uganda railway are contributing additional funds to shore up the company’s capital base to repair the railway and buy new locomotives. The project had been held up by rows with Egypt’s Citadel Capital.
The remaining KES 3.87bn raised will be invested in other mega projects. The Information Memorandum states: “This will allow TCL to pursue additional investment opportunities in the power and transport infrastructure as well as in specialized engineering that meet our expected rate of return of 25%.” These could include a 100MW geothermal power station in Menengai for which the company has submitted an expression of interest and for which the value of the investment could be KES 8.1bn. South Sudan is another area with promise and the company would hope to benefit if the Kenyan Government privatizes key stakes in major industries.
“Our plan is to invest in infrastructure across the region with focus on mines, engineering and transport,” said Dr Kiuna.
Trading results
The company doubled net profit to KES 468m in 2010 compared to 2009, while revenue grew by 25% to KES 7bn. It increased its dividend 4-fold, from 5 cents to 20 cents. Earnings per share were KES 1.29, showing a conservative dividend policy and the company boasted compound annual growth in profit after tax of 52.9% between 2003 and 2010.
June 15th, 2011 by Tom Minney
Indian steel-to-outsourcing conglomerate Essar has cancelled deals to buy telecoms operators in Uganda and Congo and is putting its Kenyan operations, under the Yu brand, up for sale. It no longer views telecom as core or strategic, according to a report this morning 14 June in India’s Economic Times newspaper and in March agreed to sell its 33% stake in Vodafone Essar, India’s third-largest telecom operator (after Bharti Airtel and Reliance Communications), to UK’s Vodafone.
The arrival of India’s Bharti Airtel in Kenya, after it acquired Zain in mid 2010, had sparked a price war that fundamentally changed the attraction and investability of telecommunications in Kenya. Bharti operates in 19 countries in Africa and Asia and has 200 mn customers.
Essar had agreed in November 2009 with Warid, part of UAE’s diversified Dhabi group, that Essar would buy a majority stake in Warid Telecom’s operations in Uganda and Republic of Congo (“Congo Brazzaville”), with a reported enterprise value of $318 million. This deal fell through because required approvals were not received and the paper reported a statement from Essar on 14 June: “It was mutually decided between the partners – Essar and Warid Group – not to proceed with the deal closure as certain condition precedents pertaining to government clearance were not met.”
The assets are to be returned to Warid, and it is not clear how much they will pay Essar back.
The paper says Essar had bought the Kenyan telco for about $150 mn and invested a further $100 mn and is looking for a price of about $300 mn. Bharti had apparently said it is busy consolidating its Zain acquisition and other buyers are not interested. The paper said it was the third largest operator, competing with Safaricom, Orange which is part of France Telecom and Bharti Airtel.
June 3rd, 2011 by Tom Minney
I have the honour to be published on the opinions section of the Royal African Society website and the article can be seen along with their excellent blogs here. I also reprint the article, which is meant to spark debate, and I welcome your comments – is it time for change and what is the way forward?
“The wind of change” was Harold Macmillan’s famous 1960 phrase about Africans moving to political self-determination. Half a century later the world’s biggest securities exchanges are worrying who will survive a hurricane of globalization, technology and competition, but some of Africa’s capital markets still seem sheltered from the economic winds of change.
The giants of securities trading are slugging it out in a wave of mergers and acquisitions and London Stock Exchange (LSE) chief executive Xavier Rolet said: “In five years there will be three, four international exchange groups with global distribution capabilities”.
In the world of mega-bourses the LSE launched a £4.3 billion merger with Canada’s TMX Group of exchanges but a “Maple consortium” of Canadian financial institutions has launched a hostile bid, seeking to block the marriage. New York’s NYSE Euronext and Germany’s Deutsche Börse want a $9.5 bn union, but US stock exchange NASDAQ and its partner IntercontinentalExchange are offering $11.3 bn to snatch the New York bride. NASDAQ is reportedly worth $5.7 bn and worried it may become a takeover target if it stays single. Many other leading exchanges are busy with strategic transactions.
Africa however has not seen much change at least in the last decade. Some of Africa’s stock exchanges are making a few operational changes, but structural transformation is not on the agenda. The continent has a couple of world-class stock exchanges – in 2010 South Africa was rated the world’s best-regulated capital market – and three or four better exchanges with enough liquidity for international and big local institutional investors. The rest of the continent features a small regional exchange and more than 15 national stock exchanges where activity could drop to a few deals a day and liquidity is too small for the market to work efficiently or provide scope for minimum transactions for international investors. Some don’t even open their doors every working day.
Stock exchanges and securities markets evolved worldwide as the most efficient way to channel capital from savers to entrepreneurs, governments and others who can use it most productively, i.e. profitably. Savers with capital are more than eager to invest billions of dollars into Africa, dubbed the “final growth frontier” for its vast opportunities and favourable pricing. Meanwhile in Africa, entrepreneurs and governments are calling for billions in capital to build roads, rail, power, water and telecommunications/IT infrastructure up and down the continent and to transform farmlands, build industries and hopefully improve livelihoods sustainably through business.
Nationalist politics and comfort zones are among the factors holding back African securities exchanges, which have traditionally been seen as national institutions. Sovereignty has been more highly prized than liquidity and efficiency. In 2009 South Africa’s JSE Ltd sought to acquire a stake in the Stock Exchange of Mauritius (SEM) after two years of talks, but regulators blocked it. Nationalism about stock exchanges is not just an African concern, it is currently in the news in Canada and Australia.However, now technology is available to transform exchanges without losing national regulation or denting pride.
Some African exchanges are improving their own operations fast. The two NSEs – the Nigerian and Nairobi stock exchanges – have taken stern measures to improve governance, regulation and transparency. In Nigeria this included a morning in August 2010 with armed police on the Lagos trading floor after regulators fired the Director-General. Other exchanges such as Mauritius Stock Exchange (SEM) are noted for continuous improvements and innovation. However, only the Egyptian Exchange, the JSE (Johannesburg Stock Exchange) and SEM have attained the exalted membership of the World Federation of Exchanges.
In some countries trading in debt is improving faster than equity markets. Kenya’s NSE launched effective automated bond trading, backed by much improved settlement, and trading volumes and liquidity are soaring. The Government is responding with a deft series of issues that balance the domestic market and stretch it with long-dated 25- and 30-year bonds. Better maturity in the national fixed-income market enables lenders to offer locals long-term housing and other finance with paybacks over decades rather than a few years. Electricity company Kengen, telecoms operator Safaricom and others have raised hundreds of millions of dollars through bond issues, many aimed only at local savers. The overall effect on the economy is likely to be huge.
But change is coming slow to some African exchanges where liquidity is too small and action too slow. International investors complain that many don’t have enough trading to accommodate the minimum buy or sell amounts required and they lament the quality of market and business information and transparency. Coupled with the operational problems and uncertainties that dog local and international businessmen in many African countries, some are still “off the map” for investment.
London, New York and other international stock exchanges benefit if companies and bond issuers seek listings and cross-listings internationally in order to get closer to investors and sources of capital and because efficient marketplaces make their capital raisings more attractive to investors. London has a tradition as the world’s capital marketplace and the LSE’s Main Market lists 18 equities for trading that focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. In 1995 the exchange created the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) as an international marketplace for smaller, growing companies seeking growth capital, including early-stage and venture-capital, as well as more established companies. Sub-Saharan Africa scores 55 out of 3,000 listings, mostly mining firms, but also farming, finance and machinery.
NYSE Euronext Inc says trading in 16 African equities listed on its New York and European stock exchanges has boomed. Stefan Jekel, managing director for Europe, Middle East and Africa, says main activity stems from South Africa but interest in Africa is growing: “The volume (number of shares) traded has increased by factor of 12 over the last ten years to 7.9m shares, and the value is up by a factor of 21 times to $204m per day”.
London is to the fore when it comes to international Eurobond issues as African countries rush to issue sovereign debt and benefit while world interest rates are rock-bottom. Interest is also growing in African derivatives such as Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) available on London, New York and other international markets and one or two African markets. NYSE says the number doubled in 2009 to ten ETFs, six in Europe and four in New York, and they have over $1bn in assets.
It is an historic opportunity for Africa’s capital market structures. However much national exchanges improve, they need radical restructuring to create liquid and more efficient markets or they will be blown off the map by the winds of change.
Kwame Nkrumah (1909-1972) and many others transformed the continent driven by their vision of a mighty Africa that grew strong by unshackling the borders that colonial powers had drawn on maps. The African Union is founded to achieve regional and economic integration for Africa to take its rightful place in the world. Capital markets have an opportunity in that technology and proven models exist for African stock exchanges to pool trading while still maintaining national exchanges and regulation and being adaptable to meet local requirements.
Sunil Benimadhu, President of the African Securities Exchanges Association and CEO of SEM said in November 2010 that world investors see the continent as “a very promising investment destination with tremendous present and future growth potential”. African countries have achieved growth rates exceeding 5% in recent years after embracing fundamental structural reform programmes. The growth is set to continue but it must be fuelled with capital, skills and improvements in the investment and business climate.
African capital markets have an opportunity and a challenge.
Tom Minney is a consultant, speaker, financial journalist and editor of the blog www.africancapitalmarketsnews.com
May 6th, 2011 by Tom Minney
The Nairobi Stock Exchange (www.nse.co.ke) and FTSE International (www.ftse.com) are to create new FTSE/NSE share and bond indices. These could be marketed to international investors who monitor FTSE indices, create more revenues for the Kenyan bourse and encourage foreign portfolio investors, boosting liquidity.
According to a report in Business Daily newspaper (www.businessdailyafrica.com), Terrence Adembesa, Product Development Manager at the NSE, said: “We believe this partnership will lay the foundation for the creation of data products, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other index-based products and will further attract enhanced foreign investment in the local market.
The NSE recently announced it would introduce a local bond index, starting with treasury bonds.
According to the FTSE Group website, it works with partners and clients in 77 countries worldwide and calculates over 120,000 end-of-day and real-time indices covering more than 80 countries and all major asset classes such as equity, bond and alternative asset classes. It is an independent company jointly owned by The Financial Times and the London Stock Exchange.
The website explains: “FTSE indices are used extensively by a range of investors such as consultants, asset owners, fund managers, investment banks, stock exchanges and brokers. The indices are used for purposes of: investment analysis, performance measurement, asset allocation, portfolio hedging, and creation of index-tracking funds.
“Independent committees of senior fund managers, derivatives experts, actuaries and other experienced practitioners review and approve all changes to the indexes to ensure that they are made objectively and without bias.
FTSE has offices in London, Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Madrid, Milan, Mumbai, Paris, New York, San Francisco, Sydney and Tokyo, FTSE Group.
The NSE said they were considering developing the bond index, an equity index, equity sectoral and finally shariah index series and they should be launched during the third quarter of 2011, helping diversify the NSE’s income and enhancing the value of its brand. Mr Adembesa commented: “The agreements have been firmed up within the technical teams for both FTSE and NSE and are awaiting board approvals.” Modalities on the equity and bond index constituents, weighting and calculation are still being worked out. The partnership could work towards developing an East African index series, while maintaining the NSE 20 share and NSE All Share indices.
The newspaper reports that the NSE made KSh35.8 million loss after tax for the year ended December 2009 (compared to a KSh59 mn profit in 2008). Total income was KSh184.5 mn (KSh328.4 m in 2008) of which 89% came from transaction levies, annual listing fees, initial listing fees and application and additional listing fees. Other income was advertising, data vending and sale of publications and merchandising items and this contributed 6% in 2009. According to law, the NSE earns 0.12% of the value of all equity transactions and 0.0035% on bond transactions at the bourse.
Kestrel Capital (www.kestrelcapital.com) executive director Andre DeSimone told the paper that having an international index would add confidence and acceptability among international investors: “Stock exchanges internationally not only make revenue from fees but they also from selling the information. It would also allow international investors to benchmark and compare the performance of other markets with the Kenyan market and exposes Kenya internationally.”
Mr Adembesa said that adopting FTSE’s global index methodology would attract enhanced international investment into the local market and NSE staff would be able to share and knowledge transfer through exposure to FTSE’s calculation systems and global distribution network.
April 24th, 2011 by Tom Minney
From the blog of Mark Mobius of Templeton Investments:
“While Africa does have challenges, I am encouraged by another side of Africa that is gradually emerging with the development of capital markets, consumerism and technology.
I believe the opportunities for the development of Africa’s markets are appealing primarily because of the strong growth numbers now emerging out of the continent.
Africa is expected to grow more than 7% annually in the next 20 years, due to an improving investment environment, better economic management and China’s rising demand for Africa’s resources. More than 100 African companies have revenues in excess of $1 billion. Africa also has impressive stores of resources, not only in minerals but also in food — 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land is found in Africa. As global demand for hard and soft commodities continues to grow, I believe Africa is in an enviable position with its vast natural resources. The potential for long-term growth in consumer-related areas is also very attractive, with around 1 billion inhabitants on the African continent. These are people, just like many others all over the world, with aspirations to own their own homes and buy possessions such as cars, refrigerators, washing machines and the like.
Within Africa, Nigeria is one of the frontier markets that I like. The country has a population of about 155 million people. It is rich in oil and gas reserves and raw materials such as iron ore, coal and bauxite. In addition, its climate and large areas of fertile land lend themselves favorably to agriculture. Nigeria’s economy has benefited from strong commodity prices; it is estimated to have grown 7.4% in 2010 and is forecasted to grow 7.4% again in 2011. The highly-anticipated Nigerian presidential election may be seen by many as a measure of the country’s progress and stability despite the clashes and unrest running up to the election. Our local sources remain confident about the elections overall and are not expecting any significant derailing event. We share this sentiment for the most part, given the current positive economic environment, fueled by high oil prices, as well as more tangible reforms in the country. Moreover, banks in Nigeria are particularly interesting. In our view, the government’s recent bailout of banks has made the nation’s bank stocks cheap, creating some very interesting investment opportunities.
I also see a lot of potential in markets such as Ghana and Kenya. Ghana was the first sub-Saharan country in colonial Africa to gain independence. Although it endured an extended period of military rule, a new constitution and multi-party politics were introduced in 1992. Currently, Ghana is seen by many as one of the most politically stable democracies in sub-Saharan Africa. We are excited about the prospects for consumer-related sectors in this market, given its relatively young and dynamic population of more than 20 million. The country is also rich in natural resources such as oil and gold. Oil production in the offshore Jubilee field commenced in December 2010 and is likely to make a significant contribution to the country’s economic growth going forward. Of course, related investment in infrastructure is also likely to require financing, so we are looking closely at the financial sector as well.
The Kenyan economy appears to be doing well at the moment. The post-election violence in late 2007 and early 2008 took many by surprise, but it culminated in the establishment of a coalition government and the adoption of a new constitution in 2010, creating a solid foundation for future stability and growth. Kenya’s position on the east coast of Africa allows it to act as a hub for trade and investment flows from the east into the rest of the continent. Exports, predominantly tea and horticultural products, have recovered strongly, and the tourism sector is also seeing a strong rebound in the form of incoming foreigners.
There are also many challenges to investing in Africa.”
March 14th, 2011 by Tom Minney
LIVE FROM SECURITIES AFRICA CONFERENCE (BNY Mellon, London)
African exchanges could grow dramatically in both market capitalization and turnover, following the explosive trends already charted by the Indian and Chinese markets. This was the view of Sunil Benimadhu, President of the African Stock Exchanges Association (ASEA – www.africansea.org), speaking at an African investment conference organized by stockbroker Securities Africa (www.securitiesafrica.com) in London today (14 March).
According to his projections, by 2020 leading African exchanges including Nigeria, Egypt, Kenya, Botswana and Mauritius could see giant growth. He says that based on an assumption of economic growth (GDP) of 5% a year and if African markets continue to follow trends seen elsewhere in terms of their share their economies (GDP) then both turnover (the value of shares traded) and market capitalization (the value of the shares listed on the exchange for trading) could increase many times during the coming decade. Already in the last 10 years Kenya has seen its market capitalization grow 12x, while the market capitalization of the Mauritian market has risen from 30% to 80% of GDP even as the economy has also grown by 5% a year. This has also been seen in other markets, for instance in China where turnover has risen 5x to $2.7 trillion and India where turnover is up from $148 bn to $1.6 trn. African markets could achieve similar growth in the coming years.
Sunil dubs his continent “the final growth frontier of the world” and says it is attracting a lot of interest, despite a slowdown this year due to political upheaval in Tunisia, Egypt and Cote d’Ivoire. As global economic power shifts to China and India, demand for commodities will continue to soar in order to support their growth, and this will continue to boost African economies. In addition, many countries have successfully introduced structural adjustment programmes. There has been huge growth in many African countries and a new and numerous middle class is emerging, likely to push consumption at 10% a year for coming years.
Investors deterred by “anaemic” growth in developed markets are turning to Africa. Despite the prospects, African markets are currently trading at less than 11x trailing Price-Earnings ratio (a measure of valuing a share price compared to last year’s net profits), compared to a trailing PE ratio of 16x in developed markets. This is despite developed markets only growing by 0%-0.5% a year, compared with African growth forecast at least at 5% in most major markets, and more in many countries. Despite delivering double-digit returns and providing some of the world’s top performing markets, even after factoring in risk perceptions “African markets are much cheaper”, says Sunil.
Challenges for macro-economic policy-makers include more improvements in the business climate including further opening of markets, inclusive growth that spreads the benefits to a middle class who will in turn spur consumption and bring large numbers of the population into the forefront of the growth story. He also said the continent needs good, democratic governance, as indicated in North African countries which had been deemed to be success stories until governance problems came to the fore. There also needs to be substantial investment in infrastructure, including roads, railways and airports to link African markets. However, Afridan capital markets could supply the investment funds for this, provided policy-makers understand and actively support the development of security exchanges.
Exchanges also have to play their part. He says they should focus on “the 4Ps: products, players, participants and partnerships”. The markets need new products, they need new players including dramatic increases in the proportion of the local population who trade on capital markets and activity levels by international investors. Top companies – for instance oil companies in Nigeria – may not even be listed and there is plenty of potential to put leading companies onto the radar screen of the international investors. African stock exchanges also need to seek new partnerships with each other. Links between markets in East and Southern Africa are advancing.
How the African Stock Exchanges Association (ASEA) aims to shape the future of African capital markets:
1. Emerge as the organization of reference and choice for investors to obtain first-hand information on African stock markets, increase the visibility of the African markets
2. Revamp the website to give up-to-date information to investors who want to understand the performance of African markets and to become a major source of real-time information, including the changes exchanges are going through.
3. ASEA will work a major index provider to come up with an investigate African index that will be jointly owned and should serve 2 key functions: as a benchmark for investors and to be used as reference for the creation of an African Exchange-Traded Fund. It will track ASEA’s 22 member exchanges, although have not yet decided the weighting of the JSE.
4. ASEA should become mouthpiece of African exchanges with African governments and regional organizations as well as the African Union, the African Development Bank and the World Bank.
March 12th, 2011 by Tom Minney
The Nairobi Stock Exchange has bought a new broker back office (BBO) system which it hopes will boost liquidity and attract listings, including offering online trading. The exchange and the vendor, Chella Software of India, are training personnel at stockbrokers, investment banks and others and aim to go live this month (March). The system cost KSh75 million (US$880,000).
The BBO system will reduce fraud and make it easier for brokers to offer online trading to their clients. Peter Mwangi, chief executive of the NSE, was quoted in local media as saying: “We expect to go live by the end of the first quarter (March).”
The BBO system will be integrated in brokers’ management and accounting information systems and offers end-to-end automated solutions with seamless integration to electronic trading, central depository and the national clearing and payment systems. Brokers whose clients trade online will earn commissions on trades.
The BBO is part of market reforms to restore investor confidence. There had been uproar when some rogue brokerage firms failed after trading shares without their clients’ consent. The Capital Markets Authority and the NSE will automatically track all transactions and the system will limit other malpractices.
Stockbroking members were free to choose to use the centralised system, controlled by the NSE, or to create or buy their own systems. The NSE website lists 20 broking members of which 2 are under statutory management. An estimated 95% of the stockbrokers reportedly chose the centralized system as it will cut their costs. The NSE BBO system costs KSh2 mn plus approximately KSh136,000 in monthly charges.
Mwangi told Reuters in an interview: “Market players can now spend more time on value addition such as research, providing advice to investors and enhancing portfolio management for the investment bankers. This system has better controls and balance against malpractice, improving risk management and easing compliance and surveillance for the NSE and Capital Markets Authority,”
The CMA established an internal anti-fraud unit, which has so far recovered millions of shillings stolen in unauthorised transactions. It posted a list of alleged fraudsters.
Mwangi believes the BBO system will attract new investors, especially young people, and increase the participation of retail investors: “The demographics of the markets are changing … young people are early adopters of technology. They are tech savvy, always online and are on their mobile phones. This offering addresses them.”
Kenyans in North America and Europe send home the majority of some $50 mn a month, some for investing in property and securities. They will be able to trade online or queue orders for when the market opens if the time differences are too great.
Mwangi told Reuters: “The more investors you have, the more you are able to mobilise domestic borrowing for investments, raise the level of savings, market capitalisation and turnover.” He also expects it will be more attractive for companies to be listed for trading on teh NSE: “To list new companies you have to show them you have a liquid market and investing in technology helps you demonstrate that.”