African Capital Markets News » Infrastructure

Africa could repeat China’s long growth story– Renaissance CIO

Tom Minney — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 19:32:30 +0000

“Africa reminds me of China back in 1999. If you missed China then, don’t do that (miss Africa) now,” is how Plamen Monovski, chief investment officer at Russia’s Renaissance Asset Managers, describes prospects for Africa. “It’s the last place in the world that is due for that rapid change and advancement.”
He was speaking in an interview with Reuters on 2 Dec. He said investors looking at China will find assets already “very discovered” and more expensive. He said African equities were trading at “exceptionally cheap” levels, while Chinese demand for natural resources and Chinese investments are boosting African business.
“The real appeal of Africa is the rise of the consumer society. Africa has got a population the size of India and consumer force as big as India,” he said. Renaissance is backing Africa’s infrastructure, consumer-related and financial sectors, as these will gain from growing prosperity within Africa, rather than commodities which depend on external growth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in October said it expects 6% growth for sub-Saharan Africa in 2012, up from 5% in 2011. It is positive about the outlook because of growth in mining and other areas. Africa is seeing new entrants and efforts by the world’s largest banks and corporate, including large funds
Monovski helps manage $2.5 billion of assets. Renaissance’s funds include a sub-Saharan fund which has fallen about 17% since it was launched in October 2010 as investors pull out of risky assets in the current crisis. The fund includes South Africa’s teleco MTN Group and Nigeria’s Zenith Bank Plc among its top holdings. He joined the fund management arm of Russia’s Renaissance Capital from Blackrock last year.
He also said China will grow and will not have a “hard landing” of strong correction in the current crisis, but much growth is already priced into Chinese equities: “We want to look at other regions in the world which looked like China in the late 90s.”

Bigger role for African Development Bank, considering move back to Cote d’Ivoire

Tom Minney — Thu, 20 Oct 2011 04:21:35 +0000

Moving back to Cote d’Ivoire may be on the agenda for the African Development Bank (www.afdb.org), according to an interesting story on the website www.devex.com (you may have to sign in to read it?). The bank fled from Abidjan in a rush in 2003, as rebels advanced on Abidjan in the brutal and all-encompassing civil war. Now the new Cote d’Ivoire President Alessane Ouattara wants it back. and it was on the agenda at the bank’s AGM in June in Lisbon, although it may take up to 3 years before this happens.
The article also notes that the bank is increasingly important and playing a bigger role as an African institution in channeling funding to African projects.
In January 2011, the bank lived through Tunisia’s jasmine revolution, although one bank staff member told me that it did not much affect the area around their building, as street action was mostly concentrated in other parts of town. They did miss a few days work, before bosses had them back in action.
According to the article, AfDB president Donald Kaberuka said uncertainty over the permanent location of the bank had a “significant effect” on morale, frustrated “horizon planning” and was difficult for the human resources department. Some bank staff may be happy to leave Tunis, others not.
Ouattara, who got into power in April 2010 after being blocked by his predecessor, Laurent Gbagbo who disputed the election result, is moving fast to re-establish Abidjan as the financial hub for West Africa and has been lobbying hard for the bank. It is not sure what the criteria for the move are, but it is possible they will need to see at least another successful multi-party election and a period of stable government.
The AfDB attended Ouattara’s inauguration and was a leader in an accelerated package of loans to help the new administration and initial renovation has started for the bank’s headquarters in Plateau district, according to the article.

New confidence, bigger role going forward
Then bank also led multilateral lenders to sign of $1 billion in loans to Tunisia’s new administration. Kaberuka, a former finance minister from Rwanda, reportedly says that after the political shocks, swift intervention can limit collateral damage. The African Development Bank is credited for its role after the 2008 global financial crisis in encouraging African states to apply fiscal restraint but to ease potential economic disruption through investment in infrastructure, and many countries are praised for successful countercyclical interventions.
The article also argues that the bank is increasingly the biggest and best bet for Western donors who are its principal shareholders. Experienced author Mark Ashurst writes: “As the bank’s loan book grows bigger and more diverse, donors, including the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom, are keen to devolve the task of managing their African exposure to an African institution.” He adds that the bank has done a skilful job of developing a terminology that avoids words such as “conditionalities” and uses “policy-based lending” and success in developing the skilful balancing acts required to work with nations. It also reflects aspirations for greater African voices in international development policy and it is likely that more international financial institutions could devolve administrative work to the AfDB.
In 2010 the African Development Bank passed the World Bank and became the leading source of multilateral financing for new African infrastructure. The same year, the bank’s sixth general capital increase included pledges to treble the bank’s reserves to $100 trillion by 2021, signalling new confidence. The bank’s loan book is stsill less than the sum of China’s resources-for-infrastructure swaps but the AfDB is much more closely involved than other lenders in African institutions such as the African Union and the Economic Commission for Africa and has a unique standing in the regard with which it is seen in Africa.
The article goes on to argue about the bank’s changing role as growth of 5% a year or more becomes the norm in Africa for coming years. This includes work to support bond and capital markets and leveraging private capital (20%), infrastructure (40%), budget support (20%), industries, including mining and manufacturing (20%). It is well worth reading Mark’s article in full here.

Ethiopia plans more bonds for $4.7bn hydropower dam

Tom Minney — Fri, 30 Sep 2011 08:10:38 +0000

Ethiopia has raised Birr 7 billion ($408 million) of debt to finance the $4.8 bn Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Blue Nile River and plans to issue more bonds. Communications Minister Bereket Simon said the country is not raising funds from foreigners in a bid to demonstrate its economic resurgence, according to an interview on Bloomberg yesterday (29 Sept).
The 5,250-megawatt dam, also called the “Millennium Dam”, is scheduled for completion in 2017 with the first 700 MW to be generated in 2015. It is on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River, about 30 kilometres from the border with Sudan. According to the report, the dam wall is to be 145 meters high and 1.8 kilometres long and the lake will be 1,680 square kilometres (Lake Tana is 3,000-3,500 square kilometres according to Wikipedia), reportedly mostly uninhabited forest in the western Benishangul-Gumuz region.
Prime Minister Meles Zenawi launched the project and construction in April. Ethiopia is busy with many giant hydropower, wind and other generation projects to use its potential to generate 45,000 MW of hydropower, 10,000 MW of wind and at least 1,000 MW from geothermal sources. It is becoming a regional electricity exporter to counteract shortages in the nine East African Power Pool (www.eappool.org) countries, including Kenya, Djibouti, Sudan and Uganda, which are to be connected by a regional grid by 2016. The country started exports to Djibouti in May, a transmission line to Sudan may be completed by January and a feasibility study for a link to Kenya has been finished. Ethiopia is seeking to diversify the fast-growing economy, which used to rely on commodities such as coffee for most of its foreign currency.
Bloomberg quotes Bereket: “Building a dam on the Nile has been the dream of every Ethiopian. For millennia, we have been looking at the Nile as if it has been a curse that took our fertile soil and benefited others while Ethiopia was impoverished.” Bereket is heading a “public mobilization council” to raise funds for the project.
Egypt depends on the flow of the Nile for all of its water. Previous President Hosni Mubarak opposed infrastructure projects by upstream nations, citing old treaties established by the British which favoured Egypt. However, Ethiopia announced the dam soon after Mubarak was deposed in February and the new government has reportedly sought details of the technical and environmental studies on the effect of the dam on Egypt’s Nile water flow. Bereket told Bloomberg that Egyptian and Ethiopian officials have met twice and relations are improving.
Zemedeneh Negatu, managing partner for Ernst & Young LLP in Ethiopia, told Bloomberg: “The financial capacity to build the dam I don’t think should be in doubt at all. Over the next six years, Ethiopia can collect from taxes somewhere between Birr 450 and 500 billion.” He said the dam is “very critical” for Ethiopia to achieve its industrialization goals and for neighbouring states.
Donations of a month’s salary by civil servants have been converted into bonds to help boost the nation’s savings rate, currently 5.5% of gross domestic product, Bereket said. The opposition have criticized funding pressure on civil servants.
Public funding is unlikely to be maintained as it would be “too taxing,” so private companies have been encouraged to buy the debt, which offers a coupon of 5%. There are also plans for bonds to be offered to the Ethiopian diaspora with returns above the London Interbank Offered Rate, while sales to farmers are planned “early next year,” he said. A “significant” portion of funding will also come from the government’s development budget, Bereket said. A National Bank of Ethiopia directive was issued in April compelling banks to buy government bonds equivalent to 27% of their loans each month may raise Birr 11 bn for development programs in its first year, according to Access Capital (www.accesscapitalsc.com), the Addis Ababa-based research group. That amount is likely to increase in subsequent years, it said in an April research note.
The Ethiopian Government plans to borrow Birr 398.4 bn by mid- 2015 to invest in industry and infrastructure. The World Bank said in June this may lead to the economy over-heating and debt problems, the. Annual inflation in Ethiopia was 40.6% in August, partly because the central bank boosted money supply.

Conference: African technology and innovation banking

Tom Minney — Thu, 08 Sep 2011 10:58:50 +0000

[SPONSORED STORY] Banking is changing fast and nowhere more than in the African markets, where growth opportunities are huge with some 250 million households still unbanked, but only for banks with the skills and technology to chase them. Banks are expanding fast across Africa, heralding new competition. Innovative banks are seizing opportunities served up by technology to reach out to millions of new customers and find ways to offer financial services that will help them increase bank revenues, through agency or branchless banking, microfinance, SMME lending, or mobile money, e-wallets and biometrics.
Banking strategies for the future revolve around “base of the pyramid”, “technology convergence”, “cloud” and “inclusive banking”. In order to grow against competitors, banks are moving into technology, from core banking systems, adding a range of user interfaces, including Internet, mobile phones, call centres. In 2011 banking leaders are moving to agency banking and branchless lending. Lessons can be learnt and the future charted for emerging markets, including India, South Africa, Kenya and Malaysia.
Speakers at a top conference “Technology Innovation for Banks in Growth Economies” set for London from 28-30 November include global banking leaders in development, SMME and micro-finance institutions such as Anil Kumar, (CEO of IFMR Rural Finance, India), Yolanda van Wyk (CEO Smart Services at First National Bank, South Africa), Sandeep Indurkar (Head Mobile Payments – Internet Banking and Mobile Banking, ICICI Bank, India). Technology and finance expert speakers include Gerhard Romen (Director Mobile Financial Services Nokia), Dr Tim Kelly (Lead ICT Policy Specialist, The World Bank) and Menno van Doorn (Director VINT Research Institute for the Analysis of New Technology). The agenda covers software-banking partnerships, the impact of broadband, government pressures towards financial inclusion, biometrics including fingerprinting, cloud-based technology for banking, e-wallets and banking in growth economies and technologies for scale.
The conference is aimed at banks across the emerging and frontier markets, particularly where their growth will be linked to new customers with growing incomes, also technology experts and banking system vendors, development finance experts, policy-makers and leading commentators.
Together they will discuss potential solutions to challenges such as:
• Poor connectivity – satellites, cable and changing national and regional regulation
• Central and development banks plans to upgrade current ICT infrastructure
• Infrastructure of tomorrow being prepared for the next stage of branchless banking
• Understanding infrastructure needed to support the alliance between telecoms and banking providers
• Can microfinance banks be a delivery channel hard-to-reach regions?
The first day, 28 November, consists of workshops: i) the fast-track on how ICT creates better delivery channels for financial products to reach the unbanked and ii) branchless banking – seize opportunities and mitigate risks.
The conference website http://technologyinnovation-banking.com gives details and bookings. Or call: +1 212 537 5898 or email: info@hansonwade.com. Early bird discount of up to GBP300 expires in 8 days.

Berbera Port-China deal – change in the Horn?

Tom Minney — Fri, 12 Aug 2011 09:54:18 +0000

Somaliland media sources and other rumours, including on Twitter, have suggested (12 Aug) that a deal on Somaliland’s Berbera port is imminent with China and Ethiopia. According to Somaliland media, Somaliland President Ahmed M. Silanyo, leading a high-level ministerial delegation, is in Beijing for his first China visit. Ethiopian officials are rumoured to be en-route to China for the announcement. This recent story on Somaliland media www.somaliland.press gives more details.
Berbera Port sits in a very strategic location on the Red Sea and plans to become a major port in the region for Somaliland, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Somalia. It could offer effective competition to Djibouti.
Somalilandpress.com last week reported presidential spokesman Abdullahi M. Dahir said the visit will focus on foreign investment, trade and development: “The aim of our trip is to seek foreign direct investment (FDI) projects from China in the fields of energy, mineral exploration and Agriculture. We are also going to seek assistance from China to implement water projects and other key infrastructures including transportation requirements (airports and roads).” The report added that the President was due to stop over in Addis Ababa for key talks with Ethiopian officials over a number of topics including the “Berbera corridor”, security and trade.
In March the same news source reported that the Somaliland Government plans to privatize the port and was holding discussions with Chinese firms. The Somaliland Foreign Minister, Dr Mohamed Abdullahi Omar had visited Beijing, China, after a visit via Addis Ababa over the port and other key areas, including security, and has apparently made several visits to China. The report says: “Both governments are pushing for foreign firm to invest in the port. According to sources close to the Government a number of firms expressed interest including the Hong Kong based, Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH), France’s Bolloré Africa Logistics and Holland-based, APM Terminals.” The latest www.somalilandpress.com report suggests that “Somaliland might lease the port to the global port operator and Hong Kong-based Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH) who might team up with another Hong Kong-based firm, PetroTrans Company Ltd, an oil and gas exploring giant which already won concession to explore oil in Ethiopia’s Ogaden region. The Chinese company plans to build gas transport infrastructure and processing facilities in Berbera where it will export.”
In February The Reporter newspaper in Ethiopia reported that Samson Wondimu, corporate communications head with the Ethiopian Roads Authority, said the Ethiopian and Somaliland governments were trying to secure the funds from the EU that would be used to rehabilitate the 245 kilometre long Togochale (boarder town)-Berbera road. Some 50 kms from the Ethiopian border, the road is rough and the asphalt road begins near the capital city, Hargeisa and goes up to Berbera.
The ageing asphalt road from Hargeissa to the port is in a very poor condition and it needs urgent rehabilitation. Berbera is an alternative gateway to Ethiopia and currently is said to be mostly used for food aid. But the Ethiopian Government plans to import parts of the country’s import via Berbera. The port also needs to be developed and it needs a substantial amount of investment.
According to Somaliland press, the first phase of the project, already approved by the EU, will be to conduct a study on how to develop the Berbera Corridor, a 850 km road. This could connected to a North-South (Cairo-Gaborone) highway. The news reported: “The second phase will be finding a reliable contractor for the job and investors. At the moment, its at the second phase and both Ethiopia and Somaliland have been in talks with a Chinese firm in Addis Ababa that is already constructing roads and highways in Ethiopia.” Mr Samson said the Ethiopian Government was finalizing work on the Jijiga-Togochale 67 km. road construction project launched 3 years ago with local construction firm, Akir Construction, due to finish soon.
Somaliland has been operating peacefully and democratically as a self-declared separate state since May 1991 and has been pushing for international recognition ever since. One key obstacle could be the African Union’s failure to take an African lead in opening this debate.
Kuwait reportedly recently gave Somaliland $10 mln to develop the airports.

Private equity and lenders hop aboard $287m Kenya-Uganda railway

Tom Minney — Tue, 02 Aug 2011 22:27:10 +0000

The International Finance Corporation (www.ifc.org) and 6 leading international finance institutions provided $164 million in financing to Rift Valley Railways International (www.riftvalleyrailways.com) to rehabilitate the Kenya-Uganda railway today (2 August). The aim is to boost cross-border trade and investment in East Africa. Other key shareholders are Kenya’s TransCentury, which listed on the Nairobi Stock Exchange on 14 July, and Uganda’s Bomi Holdings Ltd, reportedly owned by Charles Mbire. The financing is part of a $287m capital expenditure programme to improve the operating company’s infrastructure and rolling stock.
Other institutions participating in the package include: African Development Bank ($40m), Germany’s KfW Bankengruppe ($32m), Dutch Development Bank FMO ($20m), Kenya’s Equity Bank ($20m), Cordiant’s Infrastructure Crisis Fund ($20m) and the Belgian Investment Company for Developing Countries ($10m). The balance of the funding for the $287 million capital expenditure programme is being contributed by shareholders and generated through operations.
IFC is the largest financier to Rift Valley Railways and provides a $32m loan, of which $10m is already disbursed, and an additional $10m in equity to be committed. RVRI is a portfolio company of Citadel Capital, an Egypt-based private equity firm with $8.7 billion in investments across 14 countries in Africa.
The Kenya-Uganda railway line (apparently formerly nicknamed the “Lunatic Express”) has a track length of 2,350 kilometres with several branches extending from Mombasa, through Nairobi and right across key parts of Uganda. The rolling stock is 219 locomotives and 7,500 railroad cars. Brown Ondego, Group Chief Executive Officer of RVRI, said in a press release: “Our rehabilitation programme has already delivered impressive early results. Net “ton kilometres” were up 9% in the first half of 2011, compared with the same period last year, while turnaround times — a key measure of asset utilization — on the strategic Mombasa-Kampala route dropped 27% in the same period. Year-on-year, we have also seen a 30% drop in accidents per train kilometre.”
Karim Sadek, Managing Director at Citadel Capital, said: “This financing package is the backbone for an ambitious 5-year rehabilitation programme that will see Rift Valley Railways International make a quantum leap in operating standards as it addresses safety issues, completes due maintenance to improve reliability and hauling capacity, improves service to passengers, and captures long-term gains through investments in information technology.”
IFC has been key in encouraging private investment in the Kenya-Uganda railway since the consortium won the private management contract in 2005. After the project’s initial sponsor left, IFC led the restructuring of the shareholder group that resulted in the entry of new project sponsors and investors.
Jean Philippe Prosper, IFC Director for East Africa, said: “IFC has provided leadership and dedicated significant resources to encourage the turnaround of the Kenya-Uganda rail project. We are committed to the success of this railway as part of a broader effort to encourage private investment in infrastructure that promotes regional integration and social and economic development in Kenya, Uganda, and the surrounding region.”
Transport prices in East Africa are among the highest in the world, largely due to heavy reliance on trucking. A lack of operating capacity has resulted in rail capturing less than 10% of East Africa’s transport market. An efficient rail network has the capacity to reduce East African transport costs by as much as a third, since rail transport is more efficient to operate and in fuel.
IFC is a member of the World Bank Group and the largest global development institution focused exclusively on the private sector. In the fiscal year 2011, amid economic uncertainty across the globe, IFC said it boosted investments to an all-time high of nearly $19bn.

Kenya’s Transcentury private equity firm to list on Nairobi SE

Tom Minney — Thu, 07 Jul 2011 22:23:39 +0000

Kenyan private equity firm TransCentury (www.transcentury.co.ke) is to list through introduction at the Nairobi Stock Exchange on 14 July at a price of KES50 (USD0.58) a share. The firm began as an investment club and is valued at KES13.35 billion ($148.7 million). The listing price is based on the closing price on 3 June when it stopped trading on the Over-The-Counter market operated by Dyer & Blair. The aim of the NSE listing is to widen the share register and clear the way for future capital raising.
Listing by introduction means that no new shares are issued and was previously used by Equity Bank in 2006. Transcentury will list on the NSE’s Alternative Investment Market Segment (AIMS), which requires that a company must have at least 100 shareholders, with more than a fifth of the shares in the hands of investors who are not employees or relatives of the principal shareholders. To be listed on the main board, Transcentury would need at least 1,000 shareholders, net assets of KES 100m and paid-up share capital of KES 50m. TransCentury does not have 1,000 shareholders but could move to the main board if it increases its shareholding.
Transcentury started in 1997 as a small business club run by an elite group of 20 well-connected leading businessmen. It used the OTC market to widen to 430 share owners who have agreed to list 418 million shares, of which 151m will be reserved for buyers of a convertible bond on sale in Mauritius. Another 182m shares are in reserve.
Gachao Kiuna, TransCentury chief executive, was reported in Business Daily newspaper saying the listing provides a broader base of investors with an opportunity to participate “in significant growth potential” and offers TransCentury the opportunity to raise capital more easily in the future. He said the company is not in a hurry to raise more capital: “We have a bond programme in place that will serve us in the medium term. After about 24 months we might need to look at other ways of raising funds.”
Transcentury founders will be able to sell up to 50% of their shareholdings but must keep the rest for 2 years, in terms of rulings by Kenya’s Capital Markets Authority. According to the newspaper, 13 shareholders have more than 3% each, amounting to 190m shares or 71% of Transcentury. The largest single owner is the estate of the late James Gachui with an 8.37% stake worth KES1.12bn. Kenya Revenue Authority’s Commissioner General, Michael Waweru, has a 7.96% per cent stake worth KES Sh1.06bn, followed by businessman Peter Kanyango with a 7.17% stake worth KES957m, Dyer and Blair chairman Jimnah Mbaru and TransCentury’s chairman Zeph Mbugua with stakes worth KEs830m each.

Mauritius Eurobond
Transcentury has taken the interesting approach of raising low-cost financing through a $75m 6% convertible Eurobond, issued by Mauritian subsidiary TC Mauritius Holdings Limited which has already issued $35m. The company plans to list the Eurobond on the Mauritian stock exchange.

Private equity investment portfolio
According to its website, Trancentury invests in:
• Power Infrastructure: Manufacture of Electrical Cables, Conductors, Transformers and Switchgear
• Transport Infrastructure: Operation of the Kenya-Uganda Railway Concession
• Specialised Engineering: Distribution of Mission-Critical Industrial Equipment and Construction of Electrical Installations
“The philosophy is to pursue markets that display underpenetration and inefficiency”. Africa suffers a chronic under supply of power and transportation, and even when these services are available, the costs are multiples of comparable services in developed markets.
TransCentury owns stakes in cable factories which include East African Cables in Kenya and Tanzania, Cableries du Congo in DR Congo and Kweberg Cables in South Africa, which manufacture wires and transmission cables under its power infrastructure division. The company recently acquired 80% of Pende Electrical, based in the copper-belt region of Zambia, through its Tanzania subsidiary Tanelec Ltd. It is busy in energy in 5 countries.
The Information Memorandum indicates that TransCentury intends to invest KES 2.2bn raised through the bonds “in the KES 23bn capital expenditure programme to revitalize Rift Valley Railways and unlock the significant value of the railway.” Shareholders in the Kenya-Uganda railway are contributing additional funds to shore up the company’s capital base to repair the railway and buy new locomotives. The project had been held up by rows with Egypt’s Citadel Capital.
The remaining KES 3.87bn raised will be invested in other mega projects. The Information Memorandum states: “This will allow TCL to pursue additional investment opportunities in the power and transport infrastructure as well as in specialized engineering that meet our expected rate of return of 25%.” These could include a 100MW geothermal power station in Menengai for which the company has submitted an expression of interest and for which the value of the investment could be KES 8.1bn. South Sudan is another area with promise and the company would hope to benefit if the Kenyan Government privatizes key stakes in major industries.
“Our plan is to invest in infrastructure across the region with focus on mines, engineering and transport,” said Dr Kiuna.

Trading results
The company doubled net profit to KES 468m in 2010 compared to 2009, while revenue grew by 25% to KES 7bn. It increased its dividend 4-fold, from 5 cents to 20 cents. Earnings per share were KES 1.29, showing a conservative dividend policy and the company boasted compound annual growth in profit after tax of 52.9% between 2003 and 2010.

Does China push out private equity in Africa?

Tom Minney — Thu, 16 Jun 2011 07:36:16 +0000

Interesting article in this morning’s (16 June) FT Tilt by Sid Verma on whether Chinese investors are squeezing out private equity investors. He cites a global PE fund manager who reportedly told yesterday’s (15 June) Africa Forum 2011 conference organized by Private Equity International (www.peimedia.com): “Chinese investment in infrastructure projects in the construction phase have phased out” the development of local engineering platforms, the infrastructure-focused domestic institutional base and local managerial expertise.”
Verma looks at criticism of Chinese projects which are often criticized because they are funded with cheap Chinese loans provided the work goes to Chinese firms, and sometimes linked to resource extraction. He argues that in many cases Chinese investment is going into the early construction phase rather than operating infrastructure. Therefore where there is a completed infrastructure project that could generate revenues (port, toll road, etc.) there is often a new round where investors could get involved in the management. He writes: “It is feasible that a secondary market for such projects could develop in the coming years as Chinese investors unwind their exposures once they hit the operating stage; and/or seek to change the risk profile of an investment; and/or maximise income from operations through a capital market refinancing. These developments would surely provide a bounty of opportunities for foreign PE firms and banks.”
Usually if we think of Chinese private equity we think of dragon giant, China Africa Development Fund (www.cadfund.com). Verma and notes that Hony Capital (www.honycapital.com), a China-focused private equity investor with $4.4 bn of assets under management, which in January spent $110 mn to buy Interswitch, a Nigerian payment processing company.
The forum continues today.

Of course, better to read his article for yourself here.

Ernst & Young forecasts $150 bn of FDI investment by 2015, good growth

Tom Minney — Thu, 05 May 2011 16:54:47 +0000

Strong growth in new projects into Africa is expected from 2012 with foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows forecast to reach US$150 billion by 2015, says top consulting and auditing firm Ernst & Young. The company’s analysis shows that there has been a drop in investment in the last 2 years following a peak in 2008, but Africa is still an attractive investment destination and has maintained its relative share of global investment flows.
Ernst & Young’s first “Africa Attractiveness” survey says foreign investors see huge long-term growth possibilities. With regard to future investment strategies, 42% of the businesses surveyed considering investing further in Africa and an additional 19% of executives confirming they will maintain their operations on the continent. Those companies that have invested and already integrated Africa into their overall investment strategy are particularly positive.

Emerging markets interest in Africa
Much of the interest is coming from investors based in emerging markets, with investment from emerging markets into Africa up from 100 new projects in 2003 to 240 in 2010 (annual growth of 13% per year). Emerging markets investment now comprises 38% of the total into Africa (from 30% in 2003) and 74% of emerging market investors surveyed said Africa had become a more attractive investment destination over the last 3 years and they were increasingly positive about the long-term investment potential.
Developed regions such as Europe and North America are more ambivalent, as a large proportion of respondents from these regions appear to believe that Africa’s progress has stalled over the last few years. However, North American respondents are more optimistic about Africa’s long term investment potential with Europeans remaining relatively pessimistic.
The survey combines an analysis of investment into Africa over the past 10 years with a survey of over 562 global executives on their views about how and where investment will take place in the next decade. In the last decade inward FDI into Africa has climbed from 338 new projects in 2003 to 633 in 2010.
Ajen Sita, Managing Partner: Africa at Ernst & Young says in a press release: “FDI has a particularly important role to play as a future source of longer term capital for reinvestment in infrastructure initiatives and as an accelerator of sustainable growth across Africa. And there is far more to come. Although the African share of global FDI has grown over the past decade, we believe that it does not reflect the increasing attractiveness of a region that has one of the fastest economic growth rates and highest returns on investment in the world.”

Global competition for investment
Africa is in competition for international capital and resources and is currently ranked in the same category as Latin America and Eastern Europe in terms of attractiveness for investors.
Mark Otty, Area Managing Partner Ernst & Young Europe, Middle East, India and Africa comments: “There has been a fundamental shift in the global economy over the past few years, with emerging markets not only dominating investor attention and capital flows, but also playing an increasingly strategic role in defining the global economic agenda.” African markets must position themselves appropriately in this shifting landscape to accelerate growth and development and avoid getting left behind by other emerging markets and regions
The levels of risk in investing in Africa can be high but levels of profitability are high too, with competition in some sectors comparatively low. This investment window may not remain open for long, but it suggests that Africa actually appears to be relatively well positioned, with the only emerging region clearly ahead in terms of investor perceptions at this point being Asia.

Barriers to investment
Sita says: “There are of course parts of the Continent where there are real and perceived barriers to investment due to political instability and corruption. These are obvious challenges but those investing in Africa and Africans themselves have much to be positive about. We are confident that Africa is on a sustainable growth curve and that FDI rates will steadily grow. However, to accelerate and take advantage of this growth process, governments and investors – foreign and domestic – should act now. The earliest to do so, and the canniest, will benefit the most.”
The large majority of respondents view the extractive industries (mining) as a major area of investment perceiving it to be the sector with the greatest growth potential over the next few years. However, a more diverse range of sectors are now beginning to emerge as attractive investment options, with tourism (15%), consumer products (15%), construction (14%), telecommunications (13%) and financial services (9%) featuring strongly as offering high growth potential among respondents.
Ernst & Young says the African growth story is underpinned by a longer-term process of economic and regulatory reform that has occurred across much of the continent since the end of the Cold War; a period during which inflation has been brought under control, foreign debt and budget deficits reduced, state-owned enterprises privatised, regulatory and legal systems strengthened, and many African economies opened up to international trade and investment.

Where does the investment go?
Ten African countries attracted 70% of the new FDI projects in Africa between 2003 and 2010 (South Africa, Egypt, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, Libya, Ghana). There has also been a significant growth in the investment by African countries within Africa growing by 21% between 2003 and 2010. However, despite the considerable growth in the number of projects the amount of capital remains less than that provided by other emerging economies.
The majority of respondents believe that Africa will only offer high and robust growth potential over the longer term (i.e. beyond 3 years). Strong growth in new FDI into Africa is expected from 2012 onward, reaching US$150 bn by 2015. In 2015 alone, the estimated number of jobs created will be over 350,000.
The continued growth of FDI will be based in part on the economic recovery of Africa’s main developed market investors, and the continued strong growth of emerging markets such as China and India. The GDP growth of Africa will continue to remain robust averaging a healthy 5% up to 2015, and predicated partly on an assumption of continued strong demand for, and high prices of, commodities.

Emerging Capital Partners (ECP) awarded “Best Private Equity House in Africa”

Tom Minney — Wed, 09 Mar 2011 08:09:35 +0000

Emerging Capital Partners (www.ecpinvestments.com) has won an award as “Best Private Equity House in Africa” named by EMEA Finance magazine (www.emeafinance.com). This recognizes ECP’s achievements in raising over $613 million for its third pan-African fund, ECP Africa III (AF III), making it the largest fund ever raised for growth equity investing across Africa. It brings ECP’s total assets under management to $1.8 billion.
ECP is praised for committing over $1 billion to diverse investments across all of Africa and impacting growth and development in over 40 countries. It is the second consecutive year ECP won the award.
Hurley Doddy, a founding partner and Co-CEO of ECP said in a press release: “We are extremely proud to receive the award for “Best Private Equity House in Africa” for a second consecutive year. Africa’s profile as a compelling investment story has accelerated in pace over the last two years, so we feel ever more privileged to be held up as the leading firm among our many excellent peers.
“The fact that we were able to raise over $613 million during a time of great financial uncertainty proves that we are certainly not alone in believing in Africa’s potential. Our dedicated focus and extensive presence on the ground adds operational value unrivalled by our peers. We look forward to continuing our success across Africa throughout 2011 and beyond.”
Doddy told Reuters agency in an interview on 7 March that Africa offers plenty of scope for private equity investments, with at least another decade of strong growth expected from consumer goods, broadband internet and financial services. After years of explosive growth in cell phones and banking, he foresees the new growth sectors will also include TV over Internet, insurance and real estate.
Recently, ECP has deployed over $180 million from AF III in 4 investments which provide new services and increase opportunity in 17 countries: Financial Bank, a Togo-based commercial bank with operations in Benin, Cameroon, Gabon, Chad, Mauritania and Guinea; Wananchi Group, a high-speed Internet provider serving Kenya and Tanzania; Groupe NSIA, a West African company providing insurance to Benin, Togo, Senegal, Guinea Bissau, Ghana, Mali, Guinea, Cameroon, Congo and Gabon; and Thunnus Overseas Group, a leading canned tuna provider supplying France with over 25% of its canned tuna products from bases in Madagascar and Cote d’Ivoire.
The group has already made more than 50 investments and 20 successful exits in Africa. Past investments include Nigerian wireless network operator Starcomms and pan-African mobile operator Celtel International, sold to Kuwait’s MTC for $3.4 billion in 2005 before MTNCI was rebranded Zain last year and its African assets were bought by Bharti Airtel. Doddy told Reuters: “Those companies are now quite big. The rates of growth are declining so we’ve been getting out of our last investments in that segment of the telecom business, looking maybe to get in some other segments,” he said.
One such example is Kenya’s Wananchi, a triple-play telecoms firm which bundles broadband internet, cable television and voice telephony into one package and is rolling out its services to 9 east African countries. “A country like Kenya may be over 50% in terms of cell phone penetration but Pay TV, broadband are still at the 1% and 2% type range, so once again we probably have another decade of growth in that type of business,” Doddy said.
He saw further growth in Nigeria’s banking sector, a favourite of frontier market investors, and predicted financial services including insurance would also generate high returns. Changes in land ownership laws would also allow lucrative real estate investments and growth in mortgage lending. Soaring food prices in recent quarters meant investors were increasingly interested in Africa’s agricultural potential, with swathes of arable land that could be put to more productive use. “We’ve seen a real uptake in people looking at agro-businesses here.”
Popular uprisings in North Africa might slow investment in the short term but could unlock the region’s economic potential in future. “Those places had been held back by governance that needed to be changed…I think it is reasonable to expect higher growth rates in North Africa if you look over the next decade.”
He said there was increased interest from Chinese and Indian investors but viewed these as potential co-investors or exit opportunities rather than direct competition.
“If you have a good cash-generative business here in Africa, almost anywhere in almost in any sector, somebody is probably interested in buying,” Doddy said.
The EMEA Finance award is to be presented at annual Achievement Awards charity dinner in London in June.